- URA’s Q1 2026 flash estimate for the Private Residential Property Price Index (PPI) points to a measured quarter-on-quarter gain, continuing the moderating trend first visible in mid-2025.
- Core Central Region (CCR) posted a firmer reading than the OCR — a reversal of 2023–2024, driven by reduced CCR launch supply and sustained wealth-led demand.
- Rest of Central Region (RCR) held steady; Outside Central Region (OCR) recorded a softer increase as the pipeline of EC and mass-market launches continues to dilute pricing power.
- Rental index growth has slowed further — we estimate single-digit full-year 2026 growth, versus the double-digit resets of 2022–2023.
- The combined picture: a durable but decelerating upcycle, with price increments now closer to nominal wage growth than to the supercharged post-COVID window.
Context — why the Q1 2026 flash is worth reading carefully
URA’s flash estimate is the first public signal of where private residential prices settled in any given quarter. It is compiled using contracts lodged up to the last week of the quarter, using the Stratified Hedonic Regression methodology that URA has published since 2016. The final figure — released approximately four weeks after quarter end — differs from the flash only on the margin, typically by 0.1–0.3 percentage points.
For Q1 2026, the flash reading lands against a specific backdrop: cooling measures have been stable since the 27 April 2023 ABSD recalibration, SORA has been trending lower, and two large RCR launches (Zyon Grand, River Green) have absorbed meaningful demand. Any residual price momentum needs to work through a market where buyers have had three full years to recalibrate to the post-April-2023 cost structure.
What the flash suggests about each region
| Segment | Q1 2026 (QoQ, est.) | 12-month moving (est.) |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Private Residential PPI | +0.8% to +1.2% | +3.0% to +3.8% |
| CCR (Core Central Region) | +1.2% to +1.6% | +3.8% to +4.6% |
| RCR (Rest of Central Region) | +0.5% to +0.9% | +2.5% to +3.3% |
| OCR (Outside Central Region) | +0.3% to +0.7% | +2.2% to +3.0% |
| Private Rental Index | +0.2% to +0.6% | +1.8% to +3.2% |
Ranges are our internal estimates pending URA’s official flash release; the final quarterly figure typically lands within 0.1–0.3 percentage points of the flash.
The CCR reversal — why the prime segment is firmer in 2026
The narrative dominant in 2023–2024 ran: CCR is broken, OCR is the new leader. That narrative was in large part a story about foreign-buyer ABSD (60% since April 2023) hollowing out the top of the prime market. Three years on, several forces have reshuffled the cards:
- Supply discipline in the CCR: Few new CCR launches have come to market since 2024 — UPPERHOUSE at Orchard Boulevard, Reignwood Hamilton Scotts, and a handful of freehold boutiques. Inventory is being absorbed faster than it is being replenished.
- Resident buyers filling foreign-buyer gap: Ultra-high-net-worth Singapore and PR buyers have stepped into the vacuum left by foreign purchasers, particularly at the S$10–25 million tier.
- Rental yields — still higher in CCR prime luxury: For the very top end of the prime market, gross yields above 3.0% remain achievable in a world where CCR resale psf has stopped chasing the 2007 peak.
The practical consequence: a CCR-first PPI quarter for the first time in four years is likely to sharpen the “back to prime” narrative in the second quarter, even as headline CCR volumes remain modest.
The RCR — held steady by a clean sweep of launch absorptions
The RCR in Q1 2026 reads as a market in balanced health. Zyon Grand, River Green and Union Square Residences have each launched with strong take-up indicators; the existing RCR resale stock at RC-central spots (Tanjong Rhu, Telok Blangah, Toa Payoh) has held firm without showing the fragility that Q1 sometimes introduces.
That balance is the sweet spot URA and MAS have publicly described as desirable: positive but moderate price growth, roughly in line with the 5-year SORA-plus-premium framework that banks use for stress-testing mortgages.
The OCR — softening, but not weakening
The OCR reading is the softest of the three regional buckets in Q1. This is not a weakening story; it is a supply story. A full cadence of OCR launches — LyndenWoods, Faber Residence, Newport Residences (CBD-adjacent but retail-OCR buyers), alongside the EC pipeline — is producing enough inventory to keep pricing power in check.
The rational buyer interpretation: OCR sub-psf compression is unlikely in 2026 given pent-up demand from HDB upgraders, but expect psf escalation to be slower than the 2022–2024 rollercoaster.
Rental trend — the single softest indicator
The rental index is the most instructive forward signal. Rental growth rolled over in mid-2025 after the big 2022–2024 reset, and Q1 2026 continues the deceleration. Two structural forces are at work:
- Large tranche of MOP / EC completions that began coming through the rental market from late 2024, adding supply.
- Employer mobility packages normalising after a period of post-COVID wage inflation for expatriate tenants.
If Q1 rental growth confirms at around +0.4% QoQ (our estimate), full-year 2026 rental growth is unlikely to exceed +3.2% — a material step-down from the +14.8% print of 2022 and +8.9% of 2023. Landlords pricing renewal increases should calibrate accordingly.
What this means for buyers, sellers and landlords
For buyers
- Mass-market OCR launches: Psf escalation pressure is manageable; lock the psf you want and do not panic-buy.
- RCR: Remain the sweet spot for upgraders — solid rental support and modest price growth.
- CCR: If you are the demographic the ABSD changes previously excluded (non-foreign, looking for a 3BR in a prestigious postcode), the next 12 months may be a better window than the next 36.
For sellers
- Resale pricing in the RCR should land close to psf of comparable transactions in the preceding two quarters — there is no sharp upward break to exploit.
- In OCR resale, be realistic about competing against fresh launch stock. Price to the competition, not to a 2022 print.
For landlords
- Renewals at +3% to +4% are defensible in most districts; above +5% may trigger a vacancy risk in the softer end of the rental market.
- Re-let strategies may need a slight psf haircut relative to the 2023 re-let experience.
How the Q1 2026 flash connects to the policy story
Regulatory policy has been stable throughout Q1. There have been no new ABSD recalibrations, no fresh TDSR / MSR tightening, and no LTV adjustments. The Q1 reading is therefore a pure market-microstructure story — not an engineered policy response.
That has two implications. First, the deceleration is genuinely driven by the accumulated effect of the April 2023 cooling measures plus supply cycling through; the government does not need additional tools to calm prices. Second, if the PPI print surprises upward in Q2 or Q3 — a plausible scenario if a large CCR GLS site relaunches or Reignwood Hamilton Scotts delivers a breakout psf — the macroprudential toolkit remains untouched and ready.
The three charts to watch next quarter
- CCR psf premium over RCR — if this widens two quarters running, the “back to prime” narrative becomes the dominant market story.
- OCR unsold inventory — a key advance indicator for psf pressure in 2027’s completion pipeline.
- Rental index for 99-year private condos in HDB-ratio districts — the hedge between a softening rental market and continued HDB upgrader demand.
Key takeaway
The Q1 2026 PPI flash reads as a confirmation, not a reset. Price growth is moderating, the CCR is leading again, and rental momentum has flattened. None of this implies a downward break in prices — it implies that the post-COVID supercycle has matured into a steadier, more sustainable phase. For anyone making a purchase decision in the next 12 months, the question shifts from “am I buying the top?” to “am I buying at fair psf given the yield outlook?”. That is a far healthier question than the one that dominated 2022.
Related reading on LovelyHomes
- ABSD Singapore 2026: The Complete Guide
- Singapore Rental Yield Guide 2026
- Singapore Rental Market Q2 2026 Outlook
- EC vs Private Condo Singapore 2026
Sources: Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) Property Market Information portal (ura.gov.sg); Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) Financial Stability Review. Estimates are internal analysis pending the official URA flash release.
Source: URA — flash-estimate monitoring as at 22 April 2026.
Disclaimer: The Q1 2026 numbers in this article are LovelyHomes estimates, not the final URA print. Figures will be updated when the final URA quarterly statistics are released. This article is for information only and does not constitute investment advice.
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