Singapore private home prices rose 0.9% in the first quarter of 2026 — almost three times the pace flagged in the URA flash estimate three weeks earlier. The final reading, published by the Urban Redevelopment Authority on 24 April 2026, marks the sixth consecutive quarter of growth in the private residential price index, and it tells a story that diverges sharply from the volume picture: prices firmed, but transactions slumped almost 40% quarter-on-quarter.
Sharp upward revision from the +0.3% flash estimate on 1 April.
Non-landed properties: +1.3%; landed: -1.8%, reversing the +3.4% prior quarter.
OCR led non-landed with +2.2%; RCR +0.8%; CCR +0.6%.
Transaction volume crashed: only 4,041 deals recorded by mid-March, -39.7% versus 4Q 2025.
Pipeline still substantial: 8,892 units across 20 projects slated for launch from 2Q to 4Q 2026.
URA Q1 2026 final release — private home prices revised up to +0.9%.
Flash to Final — A Substantial Upward Revision
URA flash estimates are released on the first business day of every quarter, before the full transaction sample is in. The final figures, published roughly three weeks later, capture late-quarter caveats. In most quarters the gap between flash and final is small — perhaps 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points. In Q1 2026 the gap was larger than usual: from +0.3% to +0.9%.
Figure 1: Flash vs final — URA Q1 2026 PPI revisions by region.
The largest upward revision was in the Outside Central Region (OCR), from a flash reading of +1.3% to a final +2.2%. That is a meaningful move — the OCR alone accounts for roughly 60% of new-launch transaction volume in any given quarter, so a 0.9 percentage-point revision in OCR alone would lift the headline reading materially.
The Core Central Region (CCR), the most expensive submarket, was revised modestly upward from +0.4% to +0.6%, after a punishing -3.5% in 4Q 2025. The Rest of Central Region (RCR) was the only segment to be revised slightly downward, from +0.9% to +0.8%.
Why Were OCR Numbers Revised So Sharply?
Two things happened in the back half of the quarter that were not fully captured at the flash-estimate cutoff. First, the late-quarter double-launch weekend in late April 2026 (TGR and Vela Bay, covered in our earlier piece) cleared 1,224 of 1,378 units in 48 hours at firm pricing — ~S$1,700 psf for TGR in the OCR and ~S$2,886 psf for Vela Bay in Bayshore. Both sets of transactions dragged up the OCR PPI when finally captured.
Second, mid-March resale transactions that had not yet been logged at the flash cutoff also came in firmer than expected, particularly in Tampines, Sengkang, and Jurong East — the OCR submarkets where MOP supply from the 2018–2020 BTO cohort is now hitting a buoyant resale market.
The Volume Story — A 39.7% Crash
The price firming has to be read against a steep drop in activity. Only 4,041 private residential transactions were recorded by mid-March 2026, down 39.7% versus the 6,699 transactions in 4Q 2025. That is the lowest quarterly transaction count in nearly two years.
Figure 2: The defining tension of Q1 2026 — firmer prices on much thinner volume.
The volume drop has two readable causes. The 2H 2025 launch wave was unusually heavy — a number of large OCR projects came to market in October–December 2025, pulling forward what would otherwise have been Q1 2026 demand. Q1 2026 was always going to look soft on volume by comparison.
The second cause is sentiment. Buyers are pausing in front of three uncertainties: where 2026 SORA-pegged rates settle now that the US Federal Reserve has stopped cutting; how aggressive the BTO June 2026 launch becomes; and whether the Bayshore Drive mixed-use Government Land Sales tender in July sets a new benchmark psf in the East. Volume usually returns once these three questions get answered.
Landed -1.8% — Mean-Reverting After a Hot 4Q
The landed segment swung from +3.4% in 4Q 2025 to -1.8% in Q1 2026, a 5.2 percentage-point move that reflects how thin landed transaction volume can be. Landed is a small, lumpy market — one or two big-ticket sales of distinctive properties can move the index meaningfully. The Q1 print should be read as mean reversion after an outsized prior quarter, not as a fundamental break.
Rental Index +0.3% — Stabilising After 2024 Cool-Off
The private residential rental index ticked up 0.3% in Q1 2026 after the multi-quarter cool-off through 2024 and early 2025. Yields on private condos remain in the 3.0–3.8% gross range, which continues to suit institutional and family-office investors who need yield but cannot deploy in landed at scale because of foreigner restrictions.
What Comes Next — The Q2 to Q4 Pipeline
Indicator
Q1 2026 reading
What it implies for the rest of 2026
Overall PPI
+0.9% q-o-q
On track for ~3% calendar-year 2026, in line with most analyst forecasts
OCR price growth
+2.2% q-o-q
Suburban benchmarks resetting upward; watch the Bayshore tender as the next data point
Transaction volume
4,041, -39.7% q-o-q
Likely cyclical low; Q2 should rebound if the 2Q-4Q 8,892-unit pipeline lands as scheduled
Landed segment
-1.8% q-o-q
Watch for stabilising on a wider sample in Q2; small-sample noise is the dominant factor
Rental index
+0.3% q-o-q
Yields steady; institutional appetite for buy-to-let condos persists
What This Means for Buyers — The Counter-Cyclical Window
For end-user buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, Q1 2026 is the kind of moment that historically gets revisited as a buying window. Volume is low because of buyer caution, not because of weak fundamentals; pricing is firm but not euphoric; and the supply pipeline through 2H 2026 (8,892 units) will give buyers genuine choice rather than panic.
The risk on the other side: if the BTO June 2026 launch and the Bayshore Drive GLS tender both land at strong levels, OCR psf benchmarks could continue to step up in Q2 and Q3, eroding the current value pocket. Buyers planning to buy this year may benefit from anchoring decisions on the May to July window, before the heavier launch pipeline kicks in.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why was the upward revision from flash to final so large this quarter?
The flash estimate uses transaction data from roughly the first 10 weeks of the quarter only. The late-March transactions — which included the late-April-launched-but-late-March-priced TGR and Vela Bay sales bookings, plus a heavy mid-March resale week — were not in the flash sample. When they were added in for the final, OCR transaction prices firmed and dragged the headline upward.
Does this change the 2026 full-year forecast?
Most house-views had already pencilled in around 3% calendar-year 2026 price growth. Q1 at +0.9% is broadly consistent with that pace — not a beat, not a miss. The bigger swing factor for the rest of 2026 will be transaction volume recovery, since lower volume usually capped price growth in past cycles.
If volume is so weak, why are prices going up at all?
The transactions that did clear in Q1 2026 were concentrated in benchmark new launches (TGR, Vela Bay, ELTA earlier in the quarter) where developers held pricing firm because of strong cumulative interest. With limited inventory at attractive psf levels and end-users disciplined about price ceilings, the marginal trade in Q1 cleared at higher psf than the marginal trade in late 2025.
What does this mean for HDB upgraders?
For HDB upgraders, the price firming in OCR new launches is the most direct read-across — this is precisely the part of the market that absorbs upgrader demand. The flip side, however, is that HDB resale prices dipped 0.1% in Q1 2026 (covered in our separate piece), so upgrade economics remain reasonable for households who can afford the differential.
Does the URA Q1 2026 release affect cooling-measure expectations?
Almost certainly not. +0.9% in a quarter, on much thinner volume, is squarely in the range of “moderate growth” that the Government considers consistent with the current cooling-measure framework. Calibration is more likely to be triggered by transaction acceleration in 2H 2026 than by Q1’s reading alone.
How much new supply is coming?
URA reports that 8,892 units across 20 private residential projects are scheduled to launch from 2Q 2026 through 4Q 2026. That is a substantial pipeline, weighted to the OCR. Most analysts expect transaction volume to rebuild toward 5,500–6,500 units per quarter as the launches land.
This analysis summarises Q1 2026 statistics published by the Urban Redevelopment Authority on 24 April 2026 and contextualises them against earlier flash estimates and prior-quarter releases. Figures may be revised in subsequent URA quarterly statistical releases. The piece does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. For authoritative figures consult URA, HDB, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore, CPF Board, and SingStat. Before transacting, engage a licensed Singapore property professional, conveyancing solicitor, and where relevant a financial planner.
Singapore’s luxury residential market posted its strongest quarter in more than two years. 188 landed and non-landed homes priced at S$5 million and above changed hands in Q1 2026, beating the 186 deals in Q4 2025, the 177 deals in Q3 2025, and sitting comfortably above the past three-year quarterly average of 137 transactions. The data, compiled by industry researchers from URA Realis caveats lodged through the end of March 2026, points to a high-end segment that has shaken off the post-2023-cooling-measures malaise and reasserted itself.
Quick Answer — what just happened in Singapore’s luxury market
188 deals at S$5M and above in Q1 2026 — highest quarterly count since Q4 2023.
75 CCR condo transactions priced at ≥S$3,000 psf and ≥S$5M — up from 54 in Q4 2025 and 50 in Q3 2025.
55 luxury new-launch units sold — the highest single-quarter tally since Q4 2023; River Modern alone accounted for 38 of them.
Ultra-luxury (≥S$10M) deals rose from 14 in Q4 2025 to 17 in Q1 2026.
Volume is driven by Singapore Citizens and PR buyers; foreign demand remains constrained by the 60% ABSD cooling measure.
The Headline Number — 188 Deals at S$5M and Above
The 188-deal print for Q1 2026 is the highest in nine quarters, and the third consecutive quarter of expansion in the absolute volume of luxury transactions. The CCR (Core Central Region) accounted for the bulk of these deals, with high-floor condo units in Districts 9, 10, and 11 plus Good Class Bungalow (GCB) transactions making up the balance. Compared to the trailing three-year average of 137 deals, the Q1 2026 figure represents a 37% premium — signalling that this is not a quirk of the calendar but a sustained recovery.
Figure 1: Quarterly luxury home transactions in Singapore (S$5M+). Q1 2026’s 188 deals top the past nine quarters.
The CCR Premium Segment — 75 Deals at S$3,000 psf+
Look one layer deeper and the picture sharpens. The number of CCR condo units sold above S$3,000 psf and at S$5M+ rose to 75 units in Q1 2026, up from 54 in Q4 2025 and 50 in Q3 2025. That is the highest quarterly count since Q4 2023, when 84 such transactions were logged in the post-cooling-measures rally. The S$3,000 psf threshold is the conventional dividing line between “high-end” and “super-prime” in Singapore — below it sits a much broader buyer pool, above it the segment is overwhelmingly Singapore Citizen plus a small fraction of PR.
The recovery in this segment is psychologically important: it suggests buyers are once again willing to pay full freight for marquee CCR addresses despite the structural drag of higher mortgage rates and the 60% foreign-buyer ABSD. The shrinking foreign share has been more than offset by SC + PR demand from beneficiaries of business sales, IPO liquidity events, and intergenerational wealth transfers.
What Drove It — Three New Launches Did the Heavy Lifting
Luxury new-launch activity climbed for the fourth consecutive quarter, with 55 new units sold at S$5M+ in Q1 2026 — the highest single-quarter tally since Q4 2023’s 74. The skew was extreme. River Modern alone accounted for 38 of those 55 units, an outsized 69% share of all luxury new-launch absorption for the quarter. The other contributors were thinner: Skye at Holland, UPPERHOUSE at Orchard Boulevard, and Watten House each sold three units in the ≥S$5M bracket, with the residual eight units spread across other CCR projects.
Figure 2: Q1 2026 luxury new-launch absorption was concentrated in River Modern.
That concentration is a cautionary note. River Modern’s success reflects a specific configuration — a Robertson Quay riverfront site, freehold tenure, a developer (Frasers Property + Sekisui House) with a strong CCR delivery record, and an indicative price band that priced just below comparable resale stock at the same address. Stripping out River Modern, luxury new-launch absorption was 17 units — closer to the trough quarters of late 2024 than to a runaway high-end recovery.
Ultra-Luxury — The S$10M+ Cohort
At the very top of the market, the count of luxury condo transactions priced at S$10 million and above rose from 14 in Q4 2025 to 17 in Q1 2026. These are typically high-floor units at addresses such as 21 Anderson, Park Nova, Marina Bay Suites, Boulevard 88, and the various St Regis Residences trade-ins. The buyer profile in this segment is overwhelmingly Singapore Citizen with private-bank financing or full-cash purchases — the number of foreign buyers in this tier remains in low single digits per quarter, a fraction of what it was in 2017–2018.
Summary — The Q1 2026 Luxury Print at a Glance
Segment
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
QoQ change
All luxury homes ≥ S$5M
177
186
188
+1.1%
CCR condos ≥ S$3,000 psf & ≥ S$5M
50
54
75
+38.9%
Luxury new-launch units ≥ S$5M
~30
~42
55
+31%
Ultra-luxury ≥ S$10M
12
14
17
+21%
Why This Matters for the Broader Market
Singapore’s luxury segment has historically led the broader market by 2–3 quarters at major inflection points. The Q1 2009 trough, the Q4 2017 cyclical recovery, and the post-Q3 2020 Covid rebound all began with high-end pickup before mass-market volumes followed. If the Q1 2026 print holds, mass-market absorption should strengthen in 3Q–4Q 2026 as the next wave of OCR launches comes to market — including the bigger 2026 launch pipeline expected at Bayshore, Dover Drive, and the Greater Southern Waterfront.
For Singapore Citizens considering a move into the luxury bracket, the practical question is whether to chase or wait. The historical record suggests CCR psf prices follow new-launch sentiment with a 12–18 month lag — meaning the resale CCR market may still be priceable at 5–10% below recent new-launch benchmarks for the next two quarters before catching up. That window typically narrows quickly once mass-market sentiment reinforces the high-end print.
What Might Come Next
Three watch-points for Q2 2026. First, the URA full Q1 2026 statistics released on 24 April 2026 confirm a +0.9% QoQ private price-index print — consistent with strengthening luxury but not a runaway. Second, GLS sites due to be tendered in Q2 (Bayshore Drive mixed-use, possibly a CCR plot in the 2H 2026 programme) will reset the price benchmark for 2027 launches. Third, the trajectory of foreign-buyer ABSD: any signal from policymakers that the 60% rate could be calibrated — even within the FTA-exempted nationalities — would meaningfully change the high-end demand mix.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the Q1 2026 luxury print mean prices are rising fast?
Volume rose; price-per-square-foot was steadier. The URA private property price index rose just 0.9% QoQ in Q1 2026, and most of that was driven by the OCR mass-market segment, not the CCR. The CCR sub-index rose roughly 0.6% QoQ. So volume is normalising more than price — buyers are simply willing to pay current asking levels rather than negotiating sharp discounts as they were a year ago.
Are foreign buyers driving the recovery?
No. Foreign buyer share of CCR transactions remains in the low single digits, well below the 15–20% pre-2023 average, because the 60% ABSD effectively prices most foreigners out. The recovery is driven by Singapore Citizens and PRs — many of them business-sale beneficiaries, intergenerational-wealth recipients, and decoupled spouses optimising their next purchase under the SC+SC structure.
What is “River Modern” and why did it dominate?
River Modern is a CCR new-launch project at Robertson Quay (District 9), jointly developed by Frasers Property and Sekisui House. It launched in late 2025 with an indicative price from S$3,150 psf. Its outperformance reflects three factors: a freehold riverfront address that has been undersupplied in 2024–2025; a price band priced slightly below comparable resale stock; and a developer track record of on-time delivery in the same district. Other launches (Watten House, Skye at Holland, UPPERHOUSE) sold in much smaller volumes during Q1 2026.
Should I time a CCR resale purchase now or wait?
Historically, CCR resale prices follow new-launch benchmarks with a 12–18 month lag at major inflection points. If Q1 2026’s print is a true cyclical pivot, the resale window through Q3 2026 may still offer 5–10% discount to comparable new-launch psf. That said, “timing the market” in CCR has historically been less rewarding than picking the right specific unit — floor, view, layout, and en-bloc potential matter more than the macro entry month.
How does this compare to Hong Kong or Sydney’s luxury markets?
Singapore’s luxury volume recovery is broadly in line with Hong Kong’s 2025–2026 rebound but lags Sydney’s, where the easier domestic rate environment has produced a sharper turn. On price-per-square-foot, Singapore CCR remains roughly 30–40% below comparable Hong Kong Mid-Levels prints, but ahead of equivalent Sydney harbour-side residential per square metre once converted. The fundamentals (limited land, strong SGD, controlled supply) continue to support the long-term thesis.
Where is the Q2 2026 supply pipeline likely to land?
The CCR pipeline for Q2–Q3 2026 includes a smaller set of new launches relative to the OCR-heavy 2026 calendar. Watch the Telok Blangah Road / Greater Southern Waterfront plot (Kingsford’s S$1,326 psf ppr land bid implies launch psf around S$2,400–2,600), the Dover Drive plot (record S$1,556 psf ppr will translate to launch around S$2,800–3,000), and any Q2 GLS announcements covering Newton or River Valley parcels.
This article summarises industry research compilations of URA Realis caveats lodged through the end of March 2026. Data is preliminary and subject to revision as further caveats are lodged and stamp-duty assessments completed. Figures are illustrative as at April 2026. Always verify with primary sources — URA Realis, URA media releases, and the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore — before making any property decision.
CCR, RCR and OCR are Singapore’s three private non-landed market segments defined by URA. CCR (Core Central Region) is the luxury belt around Orchard and the Downtown Core. RCR (Rest of Central Region) is the city fringe. OCR (Outside Central Region) is everywhere else. In Q1 2026 median PSF runs roughly S$2,650 in CCR, S$2,180 in RCR and S$1,650 in OCR — though the spread narrows for new launches in hot city-fringe pockets.
Every time URA releases the quarterly Property Price Index, the headlines split the private condo market into three buckets: CCR, RCR and OCR. New buyers usually learn the labels when a property agent drops them into a pitch — “this is a rare RCR freehold” or “OCR yields are better than what you’d get in CCR”. The labels shape price, rental yield, buyer profile and the resale pool you are competing with.
This guide sets out what each region is, how the 2026 numbers stack up, and where the label matters most in real buying decisions. If you are comparing condo formats as well as regions, pair this with our condo downpayment breakdown.
Illustrative 2026 median PSF and buyer-impact summary by URA region.
What the three regions mean
Core Central Region (CCR)
CCR covers postal districts 9, 10 and 11, plus the Downtown Core and Sentosa. Think Orchard, River Valley, Bukit Timah, Marina Bay, Sentosa Cove. The stock skews luxury: many freehold blocks, lower-density cluster homes, a deep pool of foreign-bought units pre-2023.
Rest of Central Region (RCR)
RCR is the city fringe — districts 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 12, 13, 14, 15 and parts of 20. Queenstown, Tiong Bahru, Novena, Toa Payoh, Farrer Park, Marine Parade. From 2022 to 2025 this has been the fastest-appreciating band, thanks to new MRT lines and a rush of 99-year city-fringe launches.
Outside Central Region (OCR)
OCR is the suburbs — everywhere else. Punggol, Sengkang, Tampines, Jurong, Woodlands, Yishun, Bukit Panjang. OCR has the largest supply of new 99-year condo stock, the most owner-occupier demand, and the widest internal price range (budget 99-year next to premium integrated developments).
Where the numbers sit in 2026
Region
Median PSF (new + resale)
Typical 2-bedder quantum
Rental yield (gross)
CCR
~S$2,650
S$2.3m–S$3.2m
2.5%–3.2%
RCR
~S$2,180
S$1.6m–S$2.3m
3.2%–4.0%
OCR
~S$1,650
S$1.1m–S$1.7m
3.5%–4.6%
Note the yield curve inverts the price curve: OCR delivers the highest gross yield; CCR the lowest. This is why investor pockets of OCR — near MRT interchanges, business parks — have been crowded for years.
Why the label still matters
1. Financing is region-neutral, but underwriting isn’t
ABSD, BSD, LTV limits and TDSR are identical across regions. But bank valuation and loan-amount appetite can diverge: CCR luxury units are sometimes under-valued by conservative banks, producing Cash-Over-Valuation surprises. Our COV guide explains how this works in detail for HDB, but the same dynamic shows up in high-ticket CCR resales.
2. Cooling measures hit CCR hardest in absolute dollars
A 20% ABSD rise on a S$3m CCR purchase hurts more than the same percentage on a S$1.2m OCR unit. Post-April-2023 foreigner ABSD (60%) has cooled CCR rental-to-own investment demand the most.
3. Tenure mix differs
CCR has the deepest freehold pool. OCR is mostly 99-year leasehold with a narrow freehold band around older landed enclaves. For the trade-off itself, see our freehold vs 99-year guide.
Worked example — same quantum, three regions
Imagine you have S$1.8m in purchase budget. That buys:
CCR: A small 1-bedder (~650 sqft) in district 9 or a shoebox resale in Sentosa Cove.
RCR: A decent 2-bedder (~750 sqft) in Queenstown, Novena or Toa Payoh resale stock.
OCR: A generously-sized 3-bedder (~1,000–1,100 sqft) in Tampines, Sengkang or Woodlands.
For owner-occupiers, OCR tends to win on size and yield; for investors banking on capital appreciation, RCR has been the sweet spot for a decade.
Frequently asked questions
Is CCR always the safest investment?
“Safe” depends on horizon. CCR held its value better than expected through the 2014–2018 cooling-measure trough, but capital appreciation has lagged RCR and OCR from 2020 to 2025. Luxury CCR stock is also more exposed to foreigner ABSD changes.
Can a development sit across regions?
No — URA assigns each postal sector to one region. Some large projects near boundaries (for example, in Farrer Road or Redhill) feel CCR but are classed RCR. The label on the transaction determines the bucket.
Does the region change the stamp duty rate?
No. BSD and ABSD are identical regardless of region. See our BSD guide for the 2026 rate ladder.
Which region produces the best en bloc candidates?
Historically CCR and RCR, because land scarcity drives developer appetite. OCR en blocs happen, but reserve prices need to fit tighter developer margins.
This guide is for general information only and is accurate as of April 2026. Singapore property rules, taxes and cooling measures change frequently — always verify current figures with URA, IRAS, HDB or a licensed professional before committing. LovelyHomes is not a financial, legal or tax advisor.
