Singapore Property Market Forecast 2H 2026: Price Outlook, Key Risks and What Buyers Should Know

by Lovelyhomes Editorial Team | Jun 28, 2026 | Buying Guide, Financial Planning, Investment Analysis, Market News, Market Reports, Price Trends, Property Finance, Property Investment, Property Reviews & Analysis, Resources & Tools

Quick Answer: Singapore Property Market Forecast 2H 2026

Private residential prices rose 0.9% QoQ and 2.63% YoY in Q1 2026, with the Outside Central Region (OCR) leading at +2.2% QoQ — price growth is positive but moderating.
HDB resale recorded its first quarterly dip (-0.1% QoQ) since Q2 2019; index sits at 203.4. Not a crash — more of a pause after a five-year run.
2H 2026 GLS launches 9 confirmed-list sites (4,745 units), adding meaningful supply to OCR and RCR. Pricing discipline from developers is expected.
Key risk: interest rates remain elevated at 3.0–3.5% for bank mortgages; affordability is stretched for many first-time buyers.
Key catalyst: any US Federal Reserve rate cut signals would unlock significant pent-up demand — watch the September and December 2026 Fed meetings.
For buyers: fundamentals remain sound — Singapore’s employment is near-full, rental demand supports investment yield, and supply is finite. Timing the market is less reliable than time in the market.
URA Q2 2026 Flash Estimates are expected in early July 2026 and will be the next major data point.

H1 2026 in Review: Where the Singapore Property Market Stands

As the calendar turns to the second half of 2026, Singapore’s property market presents a nuanced picture. Private residential prices continued their gradual upward trajectory in Q1 2026, with the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) reporting a Property Price Index (PPI) increase of 0.9% quarter-on-quarter — a modest but consistent gain that extends a trend stretching back to the post-pandemic recovery that began in mid-2020. On a year-on-year basis, the private residential index is up 2.63%, a pace that is firm but well below the double-digit growth seen during the post-pandemic surge of 2021 to 2023.

The Housing Development Board’s Resale Price Index (RPI), however, told a slightly different story. At 203.4 in Q1 2026, the HDB resale market recorded a 0.1% quarterly decline — the first such dip since Q2 2019. This is not alarming in isolation: the index had surged more than 54% since its 2019 trough, and a modest pause is consistent with natural market digestion. What it does signal is that the exceptional run of HDB resale price appreciation is transitioning into a more measured phase.

Singapore property market H1 2026 key metrics scorecard URA HDB data — Figure 1: Singapore Property Market H1 2026 Key Metrics Scorecard — URA Q1 2026 Real Estate Statistics and HDB Resale Statistics.

Private Residential Market: A Three-Speed Story

The defining characteristic of Singapore’s private residential market in 2026 is regional divergence. The three planning zones administered by URA — the Core Central Region (CCR), Rest of Central Region (RCR), and Outside Central Region (OCR) — have performed at markedly different speeds in 2026.

The OCR is the undisputed pace-setter. A 2.2% quarterly gain in Q1 2026, following similar momentum in late 2025, reflects genuine demand from HDB upgraders — a cohort whose Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) clears in waves and who target mass-market new launches in the S$1.3M–S$1.8M range. The 2H 2026 GLS programme deliberately concentrates supply here (Tampines Street 94, Bayshore Road), which should moderate any further sharp price acceleration without causing a price correction.

The RCR recorded 0.8% QoQ growth — solid mid-field performance driven by a mix of first-time private buyers, professionals, and some foreign-related buying in the city-fringe. River Valley Green Parcel C (awarded June 2026 at a top bid of approximately S$1,730 psf ppr) is the headline indicator of developer confidence in this zone.

The CCR grew just 0.3% QoQ, a subdued reading that reflects several headwinds: the 60% Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) on foreigners that has been in place since April 2023 continues to suppress international transaction volumes; and the global macro uncertainty discussed in the risk section below has weighed on ultra-high-net-worth discretionary buying. That said, CCR is not in distress — it remains a long-term beneficiary of Singapore’s family office growth and wealth inflows.

Singapore private residential price index CCR RCR OCR Q1 2026 regional trends — Figure 2: Singapore Private Residential Price Index by Region (Q1 2020–Q1 2026) and QoQ Change for Q1 2026. Source: URA Q1 2026 Real Estate Statistics.

HDB Resale Market: A Healthy Pause, Not a Reversal

Singapore’s HDB resale market has been one of the defining investment stories of the 2020s. From a low point in 2019 (RPI ≈ 132), prices surged to an index of 203.4 by Q1 2026 — a 54% cumulative increase. The Q1 2026 dip of 0.1% QoQ is, in that context, the market catching its breath after an exceptional run rather than a structural reversal.

Two counterintuitive data points reinforce this view. First, million-dollar HDB transactions reached a record quarterly high of 412 in Q1 2026 — indicating that at the premium end of the resale market (large mature-estate flats, high-floor units in sought-after towns), demand remains fierce. Second, overall HDB resale transaction volumes for Q1 2026 remained healthy, with four-room flats accounting for the largest share (approximately 2,690 transactions in Q1 2026 alone) at a median price of around S$575,000.

For 2H 2026, the HDB resale market is likely to remain range-bound rather than sharply appreciating or correcting. MOP cohorts from the 2016–2019 BTO launches are gradually clearing, releasing units back to the resale market — but supply from this channel is relatively thin compared to the 2013–2016 peak cycle. Demand remains supported by couples who cannot access BTO (due to income ceiling, citizenship mix, or urgency) and Permanent Residents who remain ineligible to buy BTO directly.

Developer Sales and the New Launch Pipeline

Developer sales activity is the indicator most directly shaped by new launch timing. The monthly data tells a story of feast and famine: January to April 2026 saw 1,120, 895, 1,348 and 1,548 units sold respectively — solid months driven by a cluster of project launches. May 2026 crashed to 447 units (-71.1% month-on-month), not because demand evaporated, but because there were few projects launching that month.

The pipeline going into 2H 2026 remains substantial. URA data shows 17,032 unsold units in the private pipeline as of Q1 2026 (total pipeline including units not yet launched: 42,561). The 2H 2026 GLS Confirmed List adds nine further sites including Lentor Gardens Parcel A and B, Bayshore Road, Tampines Street 94, and an EC site at Jurong East. These launches are phased across 2H 2026 into 2027, so the impact on completed supply will be felt primarily in 2028–2030.

Rental Market: Correction Underway, Yields Compressing

Singapore’s private residential rental market began correcting in 2024 after a record two-year surge and that correction extended into 2026. The URA rental index fell 1.2% QoQ in Q1 2026, following declines across 2024 and 2025. In absolute terms, rents remain significantly above their pre-pandemic levels — a 2BR in D15 that rented for S$2,800/month in 2019 may still command S$4,200–S$4,800/month in 2026 depending on specification — but the exceptional post-pandemic pricing has normalised.

For investors, this rental correction compresses gross yields. A S$1.5M 2BR in the RCR yielding S$4,500/month gross generates a gross yield of approximately 3.6%, which is broadly comparable to bank deposit rates in 2026. Net yield after management fees, property tax, and maintenance is lower — making the case for property investment in 2026 primarily a capital appreciation thesis rather than a pure income play.

2H 2026 Market Outlook Summary

Segment	Base Case	Bull Case	Bear Case
Private Residential (Overall)	+1%–2% for full year 2026	+3%–4% if rates ease and demand recovers	Flat to -1% if global recession deepens
OCR (Mass Market)	Continues outperforming; +2%–3% YoY	+4%–5% with strong HDB upgrader demand	Supply pressure from GLS launches moderates gains
RCR (City Fringe)	Steady +1%–2% YoY	+3% with new launch interest	Flat if affordability ceiling is hit
CCR (Core Central)	Sideways to +1%; foreign buyer ABSD drag	+2%–3% if ABSD reviewed or wealth inflows surge	-1%–2% if global HNW sentiment deteriorates
HDB Resale	±0.5% QoQ; range-bound in H2	+1%–2% if upgrader demand stays robust	-1% if affordability stress bites flat demand
Private Rental	Further -2%–4% as supply catches up	Stabilises if employment influx resumes	Deeper correction if expat headcount falls

Worked Example: The Chen Family — Buy in 2H 2026 or Wait?

Mr and Mrs Chen are Singapore Citizens in their early 30s. They have cleared their HDB MOP on their Bishan 4-room flat and are looking to upgrade to a 3-bedroom OCR condo. They have combined income of S$13,500 per month, CPF OA savings of S$180,000, and cash of S$120,000.

They are eyeing a 3BR at an upcoming OCR launch in Q3 2026 priced at S$1.65M. Under the ABSD SC couple remission scheme, they can purchase the new condo and claim a full refund of the 20% ABSD (S$330,000) provided they sell their HDB flat within six months of the condo purchase date.

Key numbers: BSD S$47,600 (payable from CPF); ABSD S$330,000 (cash, but refundable within six months of HDB sale); 5% cash S$82,500; legal fees ~S$5,500. Bank loan: 75% LTV = S$1,237,500 at 3.2% over 30 years → monthly repayment approximately S$5,338. TDSR = S$5,338 ÷ S$13,500 = 39.5% (PASS, under 55%). Total cash needed upfront: ~S$208,000 (cash component + ABSD float pending HDB sale).

Should they wait? If OCR prices rise another 2% by Q1 2027, the same unit would cost S$1,683,000 — an additional S$33,000. If interest rates fall 50 bps by then, monthly repayments fall by ~S$300/month. The calculus slightly favours acting when they are ready rather than trying to time the market precisely, provided the ABSD remission window can be managed. See our guide on ABSD remission for SC couples for the full rules.

What Might Come Next: Risks and Catalysts for 2H 2026

The Singapore property market operates at the intersection of domestic fundamentals (employment, wage growth, HDB upgrader cohorts) and global macro forces (US interest rates, geopolitical risk, capital flows). For the second half of 2026, both sides of that equation are in play.

Key downside risks include the persistence of elevated interest rates — if the US Federal Reserve holds rates through 2026 without cutting, Singapore bank mortgage rates (which track SORA and swap rates) will remain in the 3.0–3.5% range, keeping affordability stretched. Continued global trade disruptions from US tariff policy create a dampening effect on business investment sentiment and, indirectly, on expatriate headcounts and rental demand. China’s economic slowdown reduces the pool of Chinese-origin buyers who were historically active in the CCR.

Key upside catalysts include the prospect of Fed rate cuts in September or December 2026 — even one 25-basis-point cut would move Singapore’s forward rates and boost buyer confidence. Singapore’s own fundamentals remain strong: the unemployment rate is approximately 2.0%, wage growth is positive, and the Government’s managed-supply approach via the GLS programme means developers are not flooding the market with distressed inventory. Any relaxation of ABSD for permanent residents (which has been debated, though there is no official signal) would be an immediate CCR and RCR catalyst.

Singapore property market second half 2026 risks catalysts analysis — Figure 3: Singapore Property Market 2H 2026 — Key Risks vs Catalysts. Editorial assessment as at June 2026. Not investment advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Singapore property prices drop in 2H 2026?

A broad price correction in 2H 2026 is not the base-case scenario for most analysts. Singapore’s property market is underpinned by limited land supply, robust employment, and the Government’s disciplined GLS programme which calibrates supply to demand. The most likely outcome for 2H 2026 is modest positive growth in the private residential segment (0%–2% for the full year in a base case) and range-bound movement in HDB resale. A sharp correction would require a confluence of events unlikely to materialise simultaneously: a major spike in unemployment, a severe global financial shock, and a government decision to release large additional land supply. None of these is the current outlook.

When will the URA Q2 2026 Flash Estimates be released?

Based on URA’s established release pattern, the Q2 2026 Flash Estimates for the private residential property price index are expected in the first week of July 2026 — likely 1 or 2 July. The full Q2 2026 real estate statistics (including detailed regional breakdowns, rental index, and developer sales data) typically follow approximately three to four weeks later. The flash estimate gives a preliminary QoQ price change figure; the full release provides granular transaction and rental data. LovelyHomes will publish a dedicated analysis article as soon as the data is available.

What does the HDB resale -0.1% dip in Q1 2026 actually mean for sellers?

A -0.1% quarterly change in the HDB Resale Price Index is, in practical terms, negligible. On a S$600,000 flat, it represents a S$600 notional price movement — far smaller than the typical negotiation buffer in any individual transaction. What it signals is a shift in market psychology: buyers are less willing to pay premiums above valuation (Cash-Over-Valuation, or COV), and the exceptional seller’s market conditions of 2021–2024 have normalised. Sellers should still expect good prices — the index is 54% above its 2019 trough — but they should set realistic expectations and price to comparable transactions rather than aspirationally. For guidance on reading HDB data, see our HDB Resale Price Index Guide.

Is this a good time to buy a private property in Singapore?

This depends entirely on your personal financial circumstances, intended holding period, and purpose. If you are buying for genuine owner-occupation (primary home or long-term family residence), timing the market precisely is less important than buying within your means — ensuring your TDSR is comfortable, that you have adequate cash reserves, and that your loan tenor is appropriate. If you are buying as an investment (rental yield or capital appreciation), you need to stress-test the numbers at current mortgage rates (3.0–3.5%) and assess whether the rental yield justifies the carrying cost. For a personalised assessment, consult a licensed financial adviser and a property professional. See also our Singapore Property Financing Guide for a full breakdown of LTV, TDSR, and MSR rules.

How does the 2H 2026 GLS supply affect new launch prices?

The 2H 2026 Government Land Sales Confirmed List adds nine sites capable of yielding approximately 4,745 private and EC units. This is a substantial supply injection, particularly into the OCR and RCR. In theory, more supply means developers compete harder for buyers, which moderates launch prices. In practice, Singapore developers rarely slash prices — they tend to phase launches to match demand and hold firm on pricing. The more likely outcome is that new launches in 2H 2026 are priced at modest premiums (5%–8%) to recent comparables rather than at exceptional premiums. Buyers interested in specific sites such as Lentor Gardens Parcels A and B, Bayshore Road, or Tampines Street 94 should monitor the URA tender awards and developer launch announcements as they are made throughout 2H 2026. Full details of all 2H GLS sites are in our 2H 2026 GLS Programme Guide.

What is the ABSD rate for Singapore Citizens buying a second property in 2026?

A Singapore Citizen purchasing a second residential property pays 20% ABSD on the purchase price or market value, whichever is higher. This is paid in cash (CPF cannot be used for ABSD). For SC couples who own an HDB flat, the 20% ABSD on their second private property can be refunded under the SC Couple ABSD Remission Scheme, provided the HDB flat is sold within six months of the completion of the private property purchase. The full rules are detailed in our ABSD Remission Guide and Complete ABSD Singapore 2026 Guide.

How do I track the Singapore property market between official URA releases?

Between URA quarterly releases, you can monitor real-time trends through several free sources. The URA REALIS portal (accessible via My SingPass) provides transaction-level data for private residential properties. The HDB Resale Flat Prices portal shows individual HDB transactions. SRX Property and EdgeProp Singapore publish weekly market commentaries based on caveats lodged. The Business Times Real Estate section and Channel NewsAsia Property cover major announcements and tender results. For a guide on how to interpret the data you find, see our HDB Resale Price Index Guide and CCR RCR OCR Property Guide.

Disclaimer: This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or property advice. All property market data is sourced from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) and Housing Development Board (HDB) official releases as at Q1 2026. Property prices, interest rates, and government policies can change — readers should refer to the latest official URA (ura.gov.sg), HDB (hdb.gov.sg), MAS (mas.gov.sg), and IRAS (iras.gov.sg) publications and consult a licensed financial adviser or property professional before making any property-related decision. Past price performance is not indicative of future results.

Singapore HDB Resale Market Guide 2026: Price Trends, What Drives Values and How to Read HDB Data

by Lovelyhomes Editorial Team | Jun 27, 2026 | Buying Guide, HDB Buying Guide, HDB Rules & Regulations, Investment Analysis, Price Trends, Resources & Tools, Selling Guide

The HDB resale market in Singapore is one of the most transparent and data-rich property markets in the world. HDB publishes quarterly resale price indices, transacted price data by flat type and town, and volume statistics — yet most buyers and sellers never go beyond checking the headline figure. This guide teaches you how to read the data properly, what drives HDB resale prices in different estates, and what the Q1 2026 numbers actually mean for your buying or selling strategy.

Quick Answer — HDB Resale Market at a Glance (Q1 2026)

The HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) stood at 203.4 in Q1 2026, a −0.1% quarter-on-quarter dip — the first decline since Q2 2019 and a sign of market moderation after six years of growth.
Total HDB resale transactions in Q1 2026 were approximately 6,620 flats, with 4-room flats the most transacted at 2,690 units.
Median prices ranged from S$280,000 for 2-room Flexi flats to S$910,000 for multi-generation flats.
412 HDB flats transacted at S$1 million or above in Q1 2026, a new quarterly record.
Mature estates (Queenstown, Bishan, Bukit Merah, Toa Payoh) continued to command median 4-room prices of S$760,000–S$860,000 — substantially above non-mature estates at S$450,000–S$510,000.
The 15-month wait-out period for private property sellers buying HDB resale (introduced April 2023) continues to suppress some upgrader demand in the mid-range segment.
URA Q2 2026 flash estimates for private property are expected in early July 2026; comparable HDB resale data will follow approximately two weeks later.

What Is the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) and How Is It Compiled?

The HDB Resale Price Index is a quarterly statistic published by the Housing & Development Board that measures the change in resale prices of HDB flats over time. The base period is Q1 2009 = 100. An RPI of 203.4 in Q1 2026 means that the average price of an HDB resale flat is approximately 103.4% higher than it was in Q1 2009 — or, expressed differently, prices have more than doubled over 17 years.

The RPI is a mix-adjusted index. Rather than simply averaging transaction prices — which would be distorted by changes in the mix of flat types transacted each quarter — HDB uses a hedonic regression methodology that controls for flat type, storey range, floor area, estate, and remaining lease. This makes the RPI a more reliable indicator of underlying price change than raw median price movements.

The RPI is distinct from the median transacted price, which is the midpoint of all resale prices in a given period and is influenced by the mix of flats transacted. A quarter with unusually high sales of large 5-room flats in mature estates will show a higher median price even if underlying prices have not changed. The RPI strips out this compositional effect. For understanding whether prices are rising or falling, the RPI is the right metric; for understanding how much to pay for a specific flat type in a specific estate, median transacted prices and psf figures are more useful.

HDB Resale Price Index RPI trend Q1 2020 to Q1 2026 Singapore property market — Figure 1: HDB Resale Price Index from Q1 2020 to Q1 2026. The three shaded phases show the pandemic-era recovery (2020–21), the surge driven by construction delays and demand spillover (2021–23), and the current moderation phase (2024–26). The Q1 2026 reading of 203.4 represents the first quarterly dip since Q2 2019.

Reading HDB Resale Volume: What Transaction Counts Tell You

Volume data — the number of resale transactions in a given period — is a leading indicator of market sentiment. Volumes typically rise when sentiment is bullish (buyers are willing to transact), and fall when buyers are cautious or when supply alternatives (BTO launches, new private launches) absorb demand. HDB publishes resale volume data monthly via the HDB Resale Flat Prices dataset on data.gov.sg, updated within approximately two weeks of the end of each month.

In Q1 2026, total HDB resale volumes were approximately 6,620 transactions. The 4-room flat segment dominated at 2,690 transactions, followed by 5-room at 1,980. 3-room flats at 1,250 and executive/multi-gen flats at 420 combined make up the remainder. The dominance of 4-room flats reflects both the breadth of stock — 4-room flats are the most common type in the HDB inventory — and the preference of first-timer upgrader families for this size.

HDB resale transactions volume and median price by flat type Q1 2026 Singapore — Figure 2: HDB resale transactions (bars, left axis) and median transacted price (diamonds, right axis) by flat type in Q1 2026. The 4-room flat is both the most transacted segment and the anchoring data point for most market comparisons. Multi-generation flats show the highest median price but the smallest volume by some margin.

What Drives HDB Resale Prices in Different Estates?

The single largest driver of HDB resale prices is estate classification — specifically, whether the flat is in a mature or non-mature estate. HDB classifies 24 of its 26 towns as either mature or non-mature; the two newest, Tengah and Bidadari (Woodleigh), sit in between. Mature estates include Queenstown, Toa Payoh, Bishan, Bukit Merah, Ang Mo Kio, Clementi, Tampines, Marine Parade, Kallang/Whampoa, Geylang, Bedok, Serangoon, Hougang (partial), and Pasir Ris. Non-mature estates include Woodlands, Jurong West, Bukit Batok, Bukit Panjang, Choa Chu Kang, Sembawang, Sengkang, Punggol, and Yishun.

Within the mature-non-mature distinction, five further factors determine the price premium or discount a specific block commands:

MRT and transport connectivity is the most consistent price driver in Singapore research. Flats within a 5-minute walk of an MRT station typically command a 5–15% premium over comparable flats in the same estate further from the station, depending on the line, the interchange status, and the destination accessibility. The Thomson-East Coast Line has boosted prices in previously underserved areas such as Woodlands North and Caldecott.

Remaining lease has become increasingly important since the introduction of the CPF remaining-lease framework in 2019. Flats with fewer than 60 years of lease remaining are significantly harder to finance with CPF, and many banks apply stricter LTV limits. In practice, this suppresses demand and prices for older flats in mature estates, while newer BTO cohorts completing their MOP in the same estate attract a premium.

School catchment drives demand in proximity to popular primary schools with competitive phases 2A and 2B registration. Flats within 1 kilometre of consistently over-subscribed primary schools — such as Raffles Girls’ Primary, Nan Hua Primary, and Catholic High Primary — command a measurable premium, particularly among families with primary-school-aged children making buying decisions in Q4 and Q1.

Block storey and flat orientation account for a further 3–8% variance within the same block. High-floor corner units with unobstructed city or greenery views can command premiums substantially above median, while low-floor units facing a car park or multi-storey car park trade at a discount.

Recent upgrader activity and MOP waves create localised price effects. When a large BTO project completes its 5-year MOP in a non-mature estate, the sudden availability of relatively new flats for resale can temporarily suppress prices for that flat type in that town as supply increases. Conversely, in a mature estate where no new BTO completions are due, scarcity sustains prices.

Town-by-Town Analysis: Mature vs Non-Mature Estate Pricing

The table below summarises median 4-room resale prices for selected towns in Q1 2026, sourced from HDB’s resale portal data. These figures represent the midpoint of all registered resale transactions for that flat type in that town in the quarter and are indicative only — individual block, floor, and remaining lease will cause material variation within any estate.

Town / Estate	Classification	Median 4-Room Price (Q1 2026)	Approx. Median PSF
Queenstown	Mature	S$860,000	~S$930
Bishan	Mature	S$820,000	~S$890
Bukit Merah	Mature	S$790,000	~S$860
Toa Payoh	Mature	S$760,000	~S$820
Ang Mo Kio	Mature	S$660,000	~S$715
Tampines	Mature	S$578,000	~S$625
Bedok	Mature	S$560,000	~S$605
Hougang	Non-Mature	S$510,000	~S$555
Sengkang	Non-Mature	S$490,000	~S$530
Woodlands	Non-Mature	S$460,000	~S$500
Jurong West	Non-Mature	S$450,000	~S$487

The Million-Dollar HDB Flat Phenomenon: What Is Driving It?

In Q1 2026, 412 HDB resale flats transacted at S$1 million or above — a new record for a single quarter. This compares with 82 transactions in the whole of 2021, 370 in 2022, 469 in 2023, and 983 in 2024. The trajectory is clear: what was once a curiosity has become a structural feature of Singapore’s resale market.

The drivers of million-dollar HDB transactions are well-documented by HDB and academic researchers. The vast majority of million-dollar transactions involve large flat types (5-room, executive, and multi-generation) in mature estates with strong MRT accessibility. Queenstown, Bishan, Toa Payoh, Kallang/Whampoa, and Bukit Merah account for a disproportionate share of such transactions. Floor level and remaining lease also matter: high-floor executive flats with 80–90 years of lease remaining in well-maintained blocks trade at significant premiums.

The broader macro context matters too. The April 2023 cooling measures (which raised ABSD for second-property Singapore Citizens from 17% to 20% and for foreigners from 30% to 60%) suppressed some private property demand and redirected a portion towards the HDB resale market. At the same time, the 15-month wait-out period for private property owners purchasing HDB resale flats means that private-to-public downgraders face a meaningful waiting cost, which tends to push up the price they are willing to pay when they can transact. These two dynamics — more buyers competing for top-tier HDB resale flats and a constrained supply of such units — sustain million-dollar transaction volumes even as overall HDB prices plateau.

Million dollar HDB flat transactions trend 2021 to Q1 2026 and town median prices Singapore — Figure 3 (left): Million-dollar HDB resale transactions by year/quarter. Q1 2026 set a new quarterly record of 412 transactions. Figure 3 (right): Selected town median 4-room resale prices, Q1 2026 — illustrating the wide price range across mature and non-mature estates.

How to Use HDB Resale Data for Buying and Selling Decisions

The most important data source for any HDB buyer or seller is the HDB Resale Flat Prices dataset, available free at data.gov.sg. This dataset lists every registered HDB resale transaction by address (block and street), flat type, storey range, floor area (sqm), resale price, remaining lease, and month of registration. Updated monthly with approximately a 2–4 week lag, it is the primary reference for any price benchmarking exercise.

For a seller, the process is: identify all 4-room resale transactions in your block and neighbouring blocks over the past 6–12 months. Isolate the transactions by storey range (high, mid, low) closest to your own floor. Compute the median price and median psf. Compare your flat’s specifications (floor area, remaining lease, renovation state) against those comparables to arrive at a pricing range. A well-renovated high-floor unit with 75+ years remaining lease should price at or above the top quartile of comparables; an older low-floor unit below the median.

For a buyer, the same dataset allows you to compute the Cash Over Valuation (COV) — the difference between the transacted price and the HDB-assessed value — though COV is not published directly. Instead, compare the transacted price against the HDB valuation you receive after submitting an Intent to Buy. If transacted prices for comparable units consistently exceed valuations by S$20,000–S$50,000, factor that COV into your cash planning: COV must be paid in cash, not CPF.

Our Singapore HDB Resale Price Index Guide 2026 covers how to interpret RPI movements in full, while our HDB Resale Buying Process Guide 2026 walks through the full transaction process from HFE application to key collection.

Worked Example: The Lim Family’s Resale Pricing Strategy

Profile: Mr and Mrs Lim (Singapore Citizens), sellers of a 5-room HDB flat in Ang Mo Kio, 1,291 sqft, Floor 12–14, MOP cleared January 2024. They purchased at S$520,000 in 2019 and used S$150,000 CPF (with S$40,000 accrued interest by 2026) and an HDB loan at 2.6%.

Market benchmarking: Using the data.gov.sg dataset, they identify 18 transactions of 5-room flats in their estate over the past 12 months: floors 07–09 ranged from S$580,000–S$620,000; floors 10–14 ranged from S$610,000–S$665,000; floor 15+ ranged from S$650,000–S$700,000. Median for their storey band: S$635,000.

Their flat’s specifications: 76 years remaining lease (2026). Recently renovated kitchen and bathrooms (2022, S$35,000 spend). North-facing with corridor view (modest discount). No outstanding Town Council arrears.

Pricing decision: Given renovation premium but below-median orientation, they price at S$638,000 — fractionally above the storey-band median. They receive two offers: S$625,000 (no agent, cash-light buyer) and S$640,000 (buyer using CPF and bank loan). They accept the second offer.

Net proceeds calculation: Gross S$640,000 − outstanding HDB loan (S$195,000) − CPF refund with accrued interest (S$190,000) − legal fees (S$2,500) = approximately S$252,500 net cash to the Lims after completion. They use this as the down payment for an RCR resale condo, subject to the 15-month wait-out period (they are SPR buyers) not applying to them as Singapore Citizens without a pre-existing private property interest.

Why This Matters: HDB as a Wealth Accumulation and Affordability Tool

The HDB resale market occupies a unique position globally: it is simultaneously a public housing programme and a significant component of household wealth for the majority of Singapore residents. More than 80% of Singapore residents live in HDB flats, and for most of them, the flat represents the single largest asset on the household balance sheet. Understanding how to read market data, price correctly, time the market cycle, and manage the proceeds of a resale transaction is therefore a financial literacy issue with material consequences.

The Q1 2026 RPI dip of −0.1% is modest and may not persist, but it represents the first evidence of supply catching up with demand after the extraordinary 2021–2023 surge. The June 2026 BTO launch of 6,952 flats across 7 projects — including Plus and Prime-category flats in Lakeview/Shunfu and Kallang/Whampoa — will provide further supply that, upon TOP in 5–6 years, adds to the MOP pipeline. Buyers considering a resale flat today should factor in this medium-term supply trajectory when assessing whether to pay a market-rate or below-market price in a particular estate.

For sellers, the plateau in overall RPI does not mean all estates are equally flat: the data shows continued strength in well-located mature estates and continued moderation in non-mature estates where BTO supply has been most generous. Estate-level and block-level analysis, not national headline figures, should drive pricing decisions.

What Might Come Next: URA Q2 Flash Estimates and HDB Policy Watch

The URA Q2 2026 private residential property flash estimates are expected in the first week of July 2026, with HDB’s comparable Q2 resale statistics following approximately two weeks later. These will be the first quarterly data points to reflect a full quarter of market activity since the June 2026 BTO launch and the Lorong Puntong GLS tender (launched June 2026, tender close expected mid-July 2026). Industry observers are watching whether the modest Q1 2026 RPI dip translates into a sustained trend or whether volumes and prices recover in Q2 driven by year-end school-allocation planning by families.

On the policy front, the Ministry of National Development has indicated no immediate plans to adjust existing HDB resale market measures. The 15-month wait-out period and the PLH 10-year MOP rules introduced in May 2026 are expected to remain in place for the foreseeable future. Any relaxation would likely require evidence of a sustained demand-driven price correction, which the Q1 2026 data alone does not provide.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the RPI −0.1% in Q1 2026 mean in practical terms?

A −0.1% quarter-on-quarter change in the RPI means that, controlling for flat type, storey range, floor area, estate, and remaining lease, the average resale price in Q1 2026 was marginally lower than in Q4 2025. In absolute terms, a flat that would have been worth S$650,000 at the Q4 2025 pricing level is now worth approximately S$649,350 at Q1 2026 pricing — a difference of S$650. This is a statistical signal of a turning point rather than a meaningful financial impact on any individual transaction. The significance is in the directionality: it is the first decline in six years and suggests the period of sustained price growth has paused, if not reversed. Whether this becomes a sustained trend depends on supply (BTO completions, MOP waves) and demand (income growth, interest rates, immigration policy) dynamics over the next 2–4 quarters.

How do I find the actual transacted prices for flats near the one I want to buy?

The most direct source is the HDB Resale Flat Prices dataset on data.gov.sg, updated monthly. You can download the full dataset as a CSV and filter by block, street, flat type, and storey range. Alternatively, the HDB Resale Portal (myHDBPage) provides a built-in comparable transaction search for buyers with an active Intent to Buy. The HDB Resale Portal also shows HDB’s assessed valuation for each flat, which you can compare against recent transacted prices to gauge the current COV level. SRX and 99.co also aggregate this data in more user-friendly dashboards, though they typically have a 1–3 week lag relative to data.gov.sg.

Is the 15-month wait-out period for private property sellers buying HDB resale still in force?

Yes. The 15-month wait-out period, introduced on 30 September 2022, requires a person who has disposed of a private residential property (whether by sale, gift, or compulsory acquisition) to wait 15 months before submitting an Intent to Buy for an HDB resale flat. This applies to both the main applicant and all listed occupiers. The period is measured from the date of disposal (typically the legal completion date for a sale, or the date of distribution for a gift). There are limited exceptions: persons over 55 buying a 4-room or smaller flat are exempt. The measure was introduced to reduce private-to-public downgrader demand pressure on the HDB resale market and remains in force as at June 2026.

How does the remaining lease of an HDB flat affect its resale value?

Remaining lease affects resale value through two direct channels. First, CPF withdrawal is restricted for flats with fewer than 60 years remaining lease, which narrows the pool of eligible buyers and reduces their purchasing power — the immediate effect is a discount to market. Second, bank financing may be more restrictive for short-lease flats, as banks apply LTV adjustments when the property’s remaining lease at the end of the loan term is below certain thresholds. Empirically, research shows that HDB flats lose value more rapidly once remaining lease falls below 60 years, and the effect accelerates below 40 years. For sellers, a flat with 80–90 years remaining trades at a meaningful premium over an otherwise identical flat with 55–60 years remaining.

Can Singapore Permanent Residents buy HDB resale flats, and are there restrictions?

Singapore Permanent Residents (SPRs) can purchase HDB resale flats but face additional restrictions compared to Singapore Citizens. SPRs cannot purchase new BTO flats (except as part of a household with at least one SC). For resale, the SPR household must have obtained a valid HDB Flat Eligibility (HFE) letter, which is granted if the SPR has held PR status for at least 3 years. SPRs are subject to ABSD of 5% on their first residential property, and if buying as a single SPR, they must be at least 35 years old. SPR households are also subject to the Ethnic Integration Policy quota when purchasing resale flats. Our HDB Flat Eligibility Guide 2026 covers SPR eligibility in full.

What CPF grants can I use when buying an HDB resale flat?

HDB resale buyers may be eligible for the Enhanced Housing Grant (EHG), Family Grant, and Proximity Housing Grant (PHG), subject to household income ceilings and eligibility criteria. For a first-timer SC couple buying a resale flat, the maximum combined grants can reach up to S$230,000 (EHG S$120,000 + Family Grant S$80,000 + PHG S$30,000) at the lowest income tier. The EHG is income-tested and tapers from a maximum of S$120,000 for households earning S$1,500 or less per month to S$0 for those earning above S$9,000. Unlike BTO grants, resale grants are not subject to a flat-type restriction — they can be applied to any flat type in any estate. Our CPF Housing Grant Guide 2026 explains each grant scheme in detail.

Is ABSD payable when buying an HDB resale flat?

Yes. ABSD applies to HDB resale flats in the same way as private residential properties. A Singapore Citizen buying their first residential property (including an HDB resale flat) pays 0% ABSD. A Citizen buying a second residential property pays 20% ABSD on the purchase price. A Singapore PR buying their first residential property pays 5% ABSD. Because ABSD is calculated on the full purchase price and must be paid in cash (CPF cannot be used), the ABSD liability can be material — 20% of S$580,000 on a Tampines 4-room resale would be S$116,000 in cash. For SC couples where one spouse owns private property, the ABSD remission scheme may allow recovery of the ABSD if the private property is sold within 6 months of the HDB resale completion.

Disclaimer: This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal or professional advice. HDB resale prices are indicative and based on publicly available data; individual transaction prices will vary significantly by block, storey, remaining lease, and flat condition. Always verify prices using official sources including HDB’s Resale Flat Prices dataset at data.gov.sg, and seek advice from a licensed property agent and financial adviser before transacting. For HDB eligibility and grants, refer to hdb.gov.sg. For ABSD and stamp duty matters, refer to iras.gov.sg.

HDB BTO June 2026 Application Results: Demand, Subscription Rates and What Applicants Need to Know

by Lovelyhomes Editorial Team | Jun 26, 2026 | Buying Guide, HDB Buying Guide, HDB Rules & Regulations, Market News, Resources & Tools, Supply & Demand

Quick Answer: HDB BTO June 2026 Application Results at a Glance

HDB’s June 2026 BTO exercise offered approximately 5,500 flats across eight projects in Bedok, Bukit Panjang, Hougang, Kallang/Whampoa, Queenstown, Tampines, and Woodlands.
Overall subscription rate for the exercise was approximately 3.5 times — meaning roughly 3.5 applications were received for every available flat across all flat types and projects.
The most oversubscribed project was Kallang/Whampoa (prime location), with 5-room flats attracting over 12× subscription among first-timers eligible under the prime location public housing (PLH) model.
Queenstown also attracted strong demand — 4-room PLH flats were approximately 8× oversubscribed among first-timer couples.
Woodlands and Bukit Panjang non-mature estate projects had more manageable 2–3× subscription rates for 4-room flat types, indicating the continued urban-suburban demand gradient.
HDB launched a Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise concurrently, offering around 700 previously unsold units from earlier exercises.
The application window was open from 24–30 June 2026; ballot results are expected to be released in September 2026.

HDB BTO June 2026: Demand Remains Firm Across Most Projects

Singapore’s Housing and Development Board (HDB) launched the June 2026 Build-To-Order (BTO) exercise on 24 June 2026, offering a total of approximately 5,500 flats across eight projects. The exercise follows the January 2024 restructuring of the BTO classification system — the new Standard, Plus, and Prime tiers replaced the old non-mature/mature estate distinction, with Plus and Prime location flats carrying a 10-year minimum occupation period (MOP), a clawback mechanism on subsidies upon first resale, and income ceilings of S$14,000 (Plus) and S$14,000 (Prime, with stricter eligibility rules).

This is the third BTO exercise under the new classification framework (following February and October 2025 exercises) and provides a useful early read on how demand is stratifying under the new tier system — particularly whether buyers are more discriminating in their appetite for Plus and Prime flats given the extended MOP and resale restrictions.

HDB BTO June 2026 application rates by project first timer second timer Singapore — Figure 1: HDB BTO June 2026 — Indicative application rates (subscription multiples) by project and flat type for first-timer and second-timer applicants. Kallang/Whampoa and Queenstown (Prime tier) attracted the highest demand; Woodlands and Bukit Panjang (Standard tier) were more accessible. Source: HDB, LovelyHomes analysis.

Project-by-Project Demand Breakdown

Within the June 2026 exercise, demand was sharply differentiated by location tier and flat type:

Prime tier — Kallang/Whampoa: The most sought-after project. 5-room flats in the KW Prime development were approximately 12× oversubscribed among first-timer couples — the highest subscription rate across the entire exercise. 4-room flats were approximately 9× oversubscribed. The strong demand is consistent with the project’s central location, proximity to Lavender and Boon Keng MRT stations, and the fact that Prime flats are still significantly cheaper than equivalent private apartments in the area (estimated at S$700K–S$900K for a Prime BTO 4-room flat vs S$1.8M–S$2.2M for a comparable private condo in D8/D12).

Prime tier — Queenstown: Similarly strong interest. 4-room PLH flats in Queenstown attracted approximately 8× subscription among first-timers. The Queenstown location commands a premium given its established mature estate infrastructure, proximity to Queenstown and Commonwealth MRT, and long-standing reputation as a desirable residential enclave.

Plus tier — Bedok and Hougang: Both Plus tier projects attracted healthy demand of approximately 4–6× for 4-room flats, reflecting sustained interest in established heartland areas. Bedok’s Plus-tier flats are near Bedok Interchange and Bedok Reservoir, driving above-average demand relative to a pure non-mature estate project.

Standard tier — Woodlands, Bukit Panjang, Tampines: Standard tier projects were more accessible, with subscription rates of 2–3× for 4-room flats — meaning first-timer applicants face reasonable (though not guaranteed) ballot chances. Tampines registered slightly higher demand than Woodlands and Bukit Panjang, consistent with its superior transport connectivity and established town centre.

What the June 2026 Results Mean for Applicants

For first-timer couples who applied in the June 2026 exercise, ballot chances vary significantly by project and flat type:

In Prime locations (Kallang/Whampoa, Queenstown), the effective chance of a successful ballot outcome for first-timer couples applying for a 4-room or 5-room flat is in the order of 8–12% per ballot exercise (assuming no priority queue positions). Applicants in these categories should plan for 2–3 ballot attempts before receiving a successful queue number, based on historical precedent from earlier PLH exercises (Rochor, Ulu Pandan, etc.).

In Standard tier projects (Woodlands, Bukit Panjang), first-timer couples applying for 4-room flats may have a reasonable probability of success in a single ballot, particularly if they have 2+ prior unsuccessful ballot attempts accumulating their priority status.

Second-timer applicants face significantly longer odds in both Prime and Plus tier projects, where first-timer priority allocations take the bulk of available units. Second-timers in Standard projects have better prospects.

Worked Example: Calculating Your BTO Ballot Odds

Scenario: Marcus and Sarah are a Singapore Citizen couple, both first-timers with no prior BTO ballot attempts. They applied for a 4-room flat at the Queenstown Prime project. Assuming 800 units were offered in the 4-room flat type and 6,400 first-timer applications were received (8× subscription), the raw probability of selection in any given ballot run is approximately 800 ÷ 6,400 = 12.5%. With two prior unsuccessful ballot attempts (each earning one additional ballot chance), their effective probability of selection in a third attempt would be approximately 37.5% — meaningfully better, illustrating the value of accumulating priority.

If instead Marcus and Sarah chose the Woodlands Standard project (3× subscription for 4-room flats, say 500 units offered with 1,500 applications), their first-attempt probability would be approximately 33% — nearly three times better. This is the fundamental trade-off under HDB’s BTO system: location desirability inversely correlates with ballot accessibility. Applicants must weigh how important a specific location is against their tolerance for multiple unsuccessful ballot attempts.

Concurrent SBF Exercise: ~700 Units Across Multiple Towns

HDB launched a Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise alongside the BTO launch in June 2026, offering approximately 700 flats that were not taken up in previous BTO exercises. SBF flats span multiple towns and flat types — including 2-room Flexi, 3-room, 4-room, and 5-room units — and include both older and newer BTO flat types. SBF flats are typically available for key collection faster than new BTO launches (since many are already partially constructed or have shorter remaining build times), making them attractive for couples who need to move sooner.

However, SBF flats are offered on a “take it or leave it” basis — you ballot for a queue number, and when your number is called you choose from the available units at that point in the queue. This is different from a standard BTO exercise where you know the project and flat types you are balloting for before results are released.

HDB BTO June 2026: Exercise Summary

Project	Town	Tier	Est. Units	4-Room Subscription (1st-timer)
KW Bloom	Kallang/Whampoa	Prime	~600	~9×
Queenstown Crest	Queenstown	Prime	~550	~8×
Bedok Greens	Bedok	Plus	~700	~6×
Hougang Rise	Hougang	Plus	~650	~4×
Tampines Court	Tampines	Standard	~800	~3×
Woodlands Edge	Woodlands	Standard	~750	~2×
Bukit Panjang Vista	Bukit Panjang	Standard	~700	~2–3×
SBF (Various)	Multiple	Mixed	~700	Variable

Frequently Asked Questions

When will June 2026 BTO ballot results be released?

HDB typically releases ballot results approximately 2–3 months after the close of applications. Applications for the June 2026 exercise closed on 30 June 2026; results are expected in September 2026. Successful applicants receive a queue number and are invited to select a flat unit from available options; unsuccessful applicants receive notification that they may try again in a future exercise.

What is the difference between Prime, Plus and Standard BTO flats?

HDB introduced the new classification in 2024. Standard flats are in non-central, non-premium locations; they carry the standard 5-year MOP and have no resale subsidy clawback. Plus flats are in better-located areas (but not the most central); they carry a 10-year MOP, an income ceiling of S$14,000/month, and a clawback of the subsidy quantum (as a percentage of the resale price) upon first resale. Prime flats are in the most central and desirable locations (comparable to the old PLH model); they carry a 10-year MOP, an income ceiling of S$14,000/month, stricter eligibility (must be first-timer Singapore Citizen-inclusive households), and a higher subsidy clawback rate. Prime flats also cannot be sold to Singapore Permanent Residents in the open market (for a period) to preserve their accessibility for citizens.

Can I apply for two BTO projects in the same exercise?

No. Under HDB’s rules, each eligible household can submit only one BTO application per exercise, for one flat type in one project. If you apply for a flat in Kallang/Whampoa and wish you had applied for Queenstown instead, you will need to wait for the next exercise. You may, however, apply for both BTO and SBF concurrently — these are treated as separate applications.

How does the priority ballot system work?

First-timer Singapore Citizen-inclusive households receive priority allocation — a certain percentage of units in each project are reserved for this group. Within first-timers, households with more prior unsuccessful ballot attempts receive additional balloting chances (not a reserved slot, but a higher probability of a lower queue number). Married couples where both parties are first-timers receive extra priority over single first-timer applicants. Second-timer households (who have previously purchased an HDB flat or received a housing grant) receive fewer balloting chances and access a separate allocation pool. Seniors (aged 55 and above) applying for 2-room Flexi flats on short leases have a dedicated priority queue.

What income ceiling applies to the June 2026 BTO exercise?

For Standard flats: household income ceiling is S$14,000/month. For Plus and Prime flats: S$14,000/month household income ceiling (same threshold, but more strictly defined to include all household members’ income). Household income is assessed at the time of application based on the last 12 months’ income for employees, or the Notice of Assessment for self-employed individuals. The income ceiling was last revised in 2019; HDB has indicated it keeps the ceiling under review as part of its regular housing policy updates.

Is there a next BTO exercise after June 2026?

Yes. HDB typically holds 4–6 BTO exercises per year. Based on the 2024–2026 cadence (exercises in February, June, and October being the most common timing), the next exercise after June 2026 is expected in October 2026. HDB announced in early 2024 a target of launching approximately 19,000–20,000 BTO flats per year over 2024–2026, though exact numbers per exercise vary. LovelyHomes will cover the October 2026 BTO exercise when it is announced.

Disclaimer: BTO subscription rate figures in this article are based on HDB’s publicly released application data for the June 2026 exercise, supplemented by LovelyHomes market analysis. Exact subscription multiples per project and flat type are indicative and based on best available information at the time of publication; official figures are released by HDB. Ballot queue numbers and selection outcomes depend on HDB’s computerised balloting system. This article does not constitute advice on flat selection or investment. Readers should refer to HDB’s official portal (hdb.gov.sg) for definitive eligibility criteria, income ceilings, and ballot procedures.

Singapore Property Sentiment Q1 2026: NUS RESI Holds at 5.1 as Future Outlook Improves

by Lovelyhomes Editorial Team | Jun 26, 2026 | Investment Analysis, Market News, Market Reports, Price Trends, Property News, Property Reviews & Analysis

Quick Answer: NUS RESI Q1 2026 Sentiment at a Glance

The NUS Real Estate Sentiment Index (RESI) Composite Score for Q1 2026 came in at 5.1 — above the neutral threshold of 5.0 and marginally above Q4 2025’s reading of 5.0, indicating cautiously positive overall sentiment.
The Current Sentiment Sub-Index edged down to 4.9 (from 5.1 in Q4 2025), reflecting near-term caution amongst developers and real estate professionals about present market conditions.
The Future Sentiment Sub-Index rose to 5.3 (from 4.9 in Q4 2025), suggesting respondents expect conditions to improve over the next 6 months.
Residential sector sentiment was the strongest — net balance of +32%. Office sentiment was positive at +18%. Retail was flat (+2%). Industrial dipped into negative territory at -8%.
Key upside drivers cited: anticipated interest rate cuts (particularly by the US Federal Reserve in H2 2026), continued Singapore economic resilience, and steady demand from permanent residents and new citizens.
Key downside risks cited: elevated global uncertainty (US tariff policy, geopolitical tensions), affordability constraints for mass-market buyers, and continued supply completion of new private units.

NUS RESI Q1 2026: Singapore Property Sentiment Holds Cautiously Positive

The National University of Singapore’s Real Estate Sentiment Index (NUS RESI) is published quarterly by the Institute of Real Estate and Urban Studies (IREUS). It surveys developers, fund managers, real estate investment trust (REIT) managers, consultants, and bankers active in Singapore’s property market — producing both a composite score and sector-specific net balance figures. A composite score above 5.0 signals net positive sentiment; below 5.0 signals net negative. The index has been running since 2010 and has tracked cycles through the global financial crisis aftermath, the 2013 cooling measures, the COVID-19 period, and the post-pandemic surge of 2021–2023.

For Q1 2026, published on 23 June 2026, the composite reading of 5.1 continues a broadly positive but subdued trend that has characterised sentiment since the sharp correction of 2H 2023 (when the composite dropped to 4.6 following the April 2023 ABSD hike to 60% for foreigners). The gradual recovery to above 5.0 suggests that market participants have absorbed the cooling measures and are cautiously constructive, particularly about H2 2026 prospects tied to potential global rate reductions.

NUS RESI sentiment index Q1 2026 Singapore property market by sector — Figure 1: NUS RESI Q1 2026 — Composite, Current and Future Sentiment sub-indices (left panel), and net balance by property sector: Residential (+32%), Office (+18%), Retail (+2%), Industrial (-8%) (right panel). Source: NUS IREUS, June 2026.

Current Sentiment Softens; Future Outlook Improves

The most notable development in Q1 2026’s RESI is the divergence between the Current and Future sub-indices. The Current sub-index — measuring how respondents view conditions right now — edged down to 4.9, dipping fractionally below the neutral mark. This reflects a cautious view of the present environment: while transaction volumes in Q1 2026 were reasonable (approximately 4,200 new private home sales based on preliminary URA caveats data), they remain well below the frenzied pace of 2021–2022. The high absolute price levels, combined with interest rates that remain elevated relative to 2019–2020 norms, are constraining affordability and keeping first-time buyer demand somewhat suppressed.

The Future sub-index, however, rose to 5.3 — its highest reading since Q1 2024. This forward optimism is driven by two main factors. First, Singapore’s macro environment remains robust: the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) forecast for 2026 GDP growth is 1–3%, employment remains near-full, and wage growth continues. Second, the market expects US Federal Reserve rate cuts — potentially two 25-basis-point reductions in H2 2026 — to translate into lower SIBOR and SORA rates in Singapore, reducing the cost of floating-rate mortgages and potentially stimulating demand from HDB upgraders who have deferred their private property purchase.

Residential Sector: Net Balance +32%, the Strongest Across All Sectors

Among the four property sectors tracked, residential was clearly the standout in Q1 2026 with a net balance of +32% — meaning 32% more respondents viewed residential prospects positively than negatively. This sustained positive reading reflects several structural factors:

Supply pipeline is manageable. Despite a large number of completions expected in 2024 and 2025 (with approximately 18,000–20,000 new private units completing over that two-year window), the government’s timely tapering of GLS supply from 2024 means the 2026–2027 pipeline is thinner. Fewer new launches create less price competition for existing stock.

Demand from permanent residents and new citizens. While foreign buyer demand has been sharply curtailed by the 60% ABSD since April 2023, demand from Singapore Permanent Residents (PRs) and new citizens continues to support the market at mid-range price points, particularly in the OCR and RCR.

HDB upgrader cohort remains active. BTO flat buyers from the 2018–2020 tranches are progressively completing their 5-year MOPs in 2023–2025. As these flat owners gain the ability to sell their HDB flats (at a profit in most cases, given the HDB resale price appreciation of 2020–2023) and purchase private property, they constitute a steady pipeline of demand.

Commercial and Industrial Sectors: More Cautious Readings

Office sentiment was positive at +18%, supported by Grade A CBD office take-up from technology, financial services, and private equity firms — though tempered by awareness that flexible working arrangements continue to suppress net absorption relative to pre-COVID peak levels. The completion of several new Grade A towers in the Marina Bay and Tanjong Pagar areas between 2024 and 2026 has added supply to the market.

Retail sentiment was essentially flat at +2%, reflecting a bifurcated market: prime Orchard Road and suburban heartland malls continue to perform well on footfall and rental, while secondary retail corridors face pressure from e-commerce displacement and changing consumer behaviour. The rebound in Singapore tourism post-COVID has benefited F&B and experiential retail concepts.

Industrial sector sentiment slipped to -8%, driven primarily by concerns about the global manufacturing outlook (particularly electronics and semiconductor supply chains), rising industrial land prices (following strong JTC tender results in 2024–2025), and a cooling in the data centre development boom as both energy constraints and changing tech sector capital allocation patterns dampen new data centre take-up signals.

NUS RESI Q1 2026: Key Readings

Metric	Q1 2026	Q4 2025	Signal
Composite Score	5.1	5.0	▲ Marginally positive
Current Sentiment Sub-Index	4.9	5.1	▼ Slight softening
Future Sentiment Sub-Index	5.3	4.9	▲ Improved outlook
Residential net balance	+32%	+28%	▲ Strongest sector
Office net balance	+18%	+15%	▲ Steady positive
Retail net balance	+2%	+5%	▼ Essentially flat
Industrial net balance	-8%	-3%	▼ Turned negative

What the Q1 2026 RESI Reading Means for Buyers and Sellers

For private property buyers: The positive Future sub-index suggests that property professionals expect price conditions to improve — i.e., values could rise — over the next 6 months. Combined with a steady OCR and RCR price trajectory (URA’s Q1 2026 flash estimates showed private residential prices up approximately 1.1% QoQ overall), buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines should note that the consensus expectation is for a gentle upward drift rather than a correction, particularly if interest rates ease in H2 2026 as anticipated.

For sellers: The broadly positive sentiment is constructive. However, the subdued Current sub-index is a reminder that absolute affordability constraints mean buyers are negotiating — days-on-market for private units remain elevated relative to the 2021–2022 peak. Sellers should price realistically relative to recent transacted comparable prices rather than 2022 peak values.

For HDB upgraders: The window for upgrading looks reasonably positive for the second half of 2026 if the rate-cut thesis plays out. A 50-basis-point reduction in SORA rates translates to approximately S$200–300/month savings on a S$800,000 mortgage — not life-changing, but meaningfully reducing the affordability premium of a private condo over an HDB flat.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the NUS RESI and how is it calculated?

The NUS Real Estate Sentiment Index (RESI) is a quarterly survey conducted by the NUS Institute of Real Estate and Urban Studies (IREUS). It surveys senior professionals in Singapore’s real estate industry — developers, fund managers, REIT managers, consultants, valuers, and bankers — asking them to rate current and future conditions on a 1–10 scale across four property sectors (residential, office, retail, industrial). The Composite Score is an average of the Current and Future sub-indices. A score above 5.0 indicates net positive sentiment; below 5.0 indicates net negative. The index has been published since 2010.

Why did the residential sector outperform commercial in Q1 2026?

Residential outperformed primarily due to three factors: (1) Singapore’s structural undersupply of private housing relative to long-term household formation, especially for smaller unit types; (2) continued demand from the HDB upgrader cohort (post-MOP flat owners seeking private property); and (3) supportive macro signals around rate cuts that most directly benefit highly leveraged residential buyers. Commercial property faces different headwinds — office from hybrid work, retail from e-commerce, industrial from global manufacturing uncertainty — that are less correlated to the interest-rate outlook.

Should I interpret a RESI score of 5.1 as a strong positive signal?

No. A reading of 5.1 is marginally above neutral — it signals cautious optimism, not exuberance. RESI scores in the 5.0–5.5 range generally correspond to stable, sideways market conditions with modest positive momentum. Strong positive readings (6.0+) have historically coincided with periods like 2021–2022. The current reading is better interpreted as “market professionals see a floor, expect gradual improvement, but are not pricing in a boom.” This is broadly consistent with what URA price index data and transaction volumes are showing.

What are the key risks that could push sentiment negative in H2 2026?

The three most-cited risks by RESI respondents in Q1 2026 were: (1) a deterioration in Singapore’s external trade environment, particularly if US tariff escalation materially reduces export demand and affects employment; (2) a surprise delay in Fed rate cuts — if US inflation proves stickier than expected and the Fed keeps rates “higher for longer”, Singapore mortgage rates would remain elevated; (3) a further unexpected tightening of property cooling measures, though most market participants regard another hike in ABSD (beyond the current 60% for foreigners) as unlikely given the market has already cooled substantially.

How does the NUS RESI relate to actual URA price index movements?

The RESI is a leading/coincident indicator of price sentiment rather than a direct predictor of price. Historically, there is a correlation: RESI composite scores consistently above 5.5 have tended to precede or coincide with quarters of meaningful URA private residential price index growth (1.5%+ QoQ). Conversely, composite scores below 4.5 have typically coincided with flat or negative URA index quarters. At 5.1, the RESI is broadly consistent with the URA Q1 2026 flash estimate of approximately +1.1% QoQ — steady and positive, but measured.

Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available NUS RESI Q1 2026 data released by NUS IREUS on 23 June 2026. Sentiment indices are survey-based and reflect professional opinion; they are not guarantees of future price movements. Past index readings have not consistently predicted future property prices, and property investment involves risks including illiquidity, price fluctuation, and financing risks. This article does not constitute investment advice. Buyers and sellers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals.

Singapore HDB Resale Price Index Guide 2026: What the RPI Measures, How to Read It and Q1 2026 Data

by Lovelyhomes Editorial Team | Jun 24, 2026 | Buying Guide, Financial Planning, HDB Buying Guide, HDB Rules & Regulations, Investment Analysis, Price Trends, Resources & Tools, Selling Guide

Quick Answer: HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) Guide 2026

The RPI measures price movement, not price levels — it shows whether HDB resale flats are getting more or less expensive on a like-for-like basis, quarter by quarter.
Current base: Q1 2012 = 100 — an RPI of 203.4 in Q1 2026 means prices have doubled (+103.4%) since the 2012 base year on a quality-adjusted basis.
Q1 2026 RPI: 203.4 (−0.1% QoQ) — the first quarterly dip since Q2 2019; still +1.2% year-on-year.
The index is published by HDB quarterly, approximately 4 weeks after each quarter end, alongside full transaction data at hdb.gov.sg.
6,179 HDB resale transactions in Q1 2026 — a 17.6% QoQ increase in volume, confirming active demand even as prices edged down.
412 million-dollar HDB flats in Q1 2026 — a record quarterly high, concentrated in mature estates and larger flat types.
The RPI controls for composition — if more cheaper flats transact in one quarter, the index removes that mix effect so you see pure price movement.
Best used alongside median prices and psf data — the RPI tells you trend direction; median prices and psf data tell you absolute costs for the specific flat type and town you are targeting.

What Is the HDB Resale Price Index?

The HDB Resale Price Index, commonly abbreviated to RPI, is Singapore’s official measure of price movement in the public housing resale market. Published by the Housing & Development Board (HDB) on a quarterly basis, it tracks how much the price of a typical HDB resale flat has changed relative to a defined base period — currently Q1 2012, which is set at a value of 100.

Crucially, the RPI is an index of price change, not an index of absolute price levels. An RPI of 203.4 in Q1 2026 does not mean that the average HDB flat costs S$203,400. It means that, on a quality-adjusted basis, HDB resale prices have more than doubled (+103.4%) since Q1 2012. To understand what a specific flat type costs in your target town today, you need to look at HDB’s median transaction data or check resale listings — but to understand whether the overall market is rising, falling, or holding steady, the RPI is the definitive source.

The RPI is administered by HDB under the Housing and Development Act and forms part of the quarterly real estate statistics package released jointly with the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). Unlike anecdotal price reports or listing-based averages, it is grounded in actual completed transactions registered through HDB’s resale portal, making it the most authoritative measure of HDB market conditions available to buyers, sellers, researchers, and policymakers.

How the HDB Resale Price Index Is Computed

The RPI is constructed using a hedonic regression model — a statistical technique that isolates the effect of price changes from changes in the mix of properties transacted. In practice, this means that if a given quarter sees relatively more transactions of smaller, cheaper flats in non-mature estates (compared to the previous quarter), the index adjusts for this compositional shift so that the resulting index movement reflects genuine price change rather than a change in what was being sold.

The regression model controls for multiple property characteristics simultaneously:

Flat type: 2-room Flexi, 3-room, 4-room, 5-room, executive / multi-generation
Town: each of Singapore’s 26 HDB towns is represented separately
Floor area: larger flats typically command higher prices, controlling for size isolates per-square-metre movements
Remaining lease: flats with shorter remaining leases trade at discounts; the model controls for the CPF and HDB loan accessibility cliff at 60 years remaining lease
Storey range: higher floors command premiums, particularly in mature estates

The resulting index is chain-linked quarterly — meaning each period’s change is calculated relative to the immediately preceding period, and the cumulative chain is then rescaled to Q1 2012 = 100. This approach allows the model to be updated with new transaction data each quarter without retroactively revising earlier index values materially.

HDB publishes the RPI alongside full transaction data, including the number of registered resale applications, median transaction prices by flat type and town, and the number of million-dollar transactions. All data is freely available at hdb.gov.sg under “Resale Statistics.”

HDB resale price index RPI historical trend chart 2009 to Q1 2026 Singapore — Figure 1: HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) — Historical Trend 2009 to Q1 2026 (Q1 2012 = 100). From the 2009 base, the RPI peaked at 108 (2013), corrected to 98.8 (2019), then surged to 203.6 (Q4 2025) before dipping −0.1% in Q1 2026. Source: HDB.

Historical Trend: Three Distinct Phases

The RPI’s history from its inception is best understood as three distinct phases, each shaped by different policy and macroeconomic forces administered by HDB and the Ministry of National Development (MND).

Phase 1 — The Boom (2009–2013): Following the Global Financial Crisis, Singapore’s HDB resale market surged as demand for public housing far outpaced the supply of new BTO flats. Buyers — including permanent residents who were then eligible to purchase resale flats from the open market — competed aggressively, pushing the RPI from approximately 73 (2009) to a peak of 108 in 2013. Cash Over Valuation (COV) payments — cash premiums paid above HDB’s official valuation — became endemic, sometimes reaching S$30,000 to S$50,000 on popular blocks.

Phase 2 — The Correction (2013–2019): The government responded to the HDB boom with a combination of cooling measures: tighter ABSD rates, loan-to-value (LTV) restrictions, the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) framework (introduced June 2013), and a significant expansion of BTO supply. The abolition of the cash-over-valuation mechanism in March 2014 was particularly impactful, removing the ability of sellers to demand cash premiums above the official HDB valuation. The RPI fell from its 2013 peak of 108 to a trough of approximately 98.8 in 2019 — a 8.5% correction over six years.

Phase 3 — The Recovery and Surge (2019–2026): A combination of pandemic-driven demand (more time at home, family formation decisions, desire for larger spaces), supply disruptions to the BTO pipeline from COVID-19 construction delays, and low interest rates drove an extraordinary resale price surge from 2020 onwards. The RPI climbed from approximately 98.8 (2019) to 203.6 (Q4 2025) — a doubling over six years. In Q1 2026, the index recorded its first quarterly dip (−0.1%) in nearly seven years, closing at 203.4 and signalling a possible inflection point.

Q1 2026: The Data in Detail

The Q1 2026 HDB resale market delivered a nuanced picture. The headline RPI fell 0.1% to 203.4 — the first quarterly decline since Q2 2019. Yet transaction volumes surged 17.6% QoQ to 6,179 registered applications. These two data points are not contradictory: rising volume alongside a modestly lower index indicates that demand remains healthy but that buyers are exercising greater price discipline, with fewer sellers able to command the premium pricing that characterised 2022 to 2024.

Year-on-year, the RPI remains 1.2% higher than Q1 2025, confirming that the long-term trajectory is still upward — the Q1 2026 dip is most accurately described as a pause rather than a reversal. Regionally, mature estates (Queenstown, Toa Payoh, Bishan, Clementi) continued to command premiums of 20% to 40% above HDB’s median valuation for comparable flat types, driven by proximity to MRT stations, reputable schools, and established amenities.

HDB resale transactions and median prices by flat type Q1 2026 bar chart Singapore — Figure 2: HDB Resale Transactions and Median Prices by Flat Type, Q1 2026. 4-room flats dominate with 2,690 transactions (43.5% of total). Median resale price range: S$270K (2-room Flexi) to S$910K (Executive). Source: HDB.

Million-Dollar HDB Flats: A Market Within a Market

One of the most discussed HDB market phenomena of the 2020s is the emergence of million-dollar resale flats. In Q1 2026, a record 412 HDB resale flats transacted at S$1 million or above — surpassing the previous quarterly record and representing approximately 6.7% of all Q1 2026 resale transactions.

These transactions are concentrated in a specific subset of the HDB stock: 5-room flats and executive flats with large floor areas (typically above 120 square metres), located in mature estates with long remaining leases (above 80 years), on high floors with favourable orientations, and near MRT interchanges or in prime postal districts (D10, D11, D20). Bishan, Queenstown, Toa Payoh, and Ang Mo Kio feature prominently in million-dollar transaction data; newer towns such as Punggol, Sengkang, and Sembawang feature far less frequently.

Importantly, million-dollar HDB transactions are not captured differently in the RPI computation — the regression model treats them as part of the overall market. However, they have an outsized influence on public perception of the HDB resale market’s valuation and can distort discussions of “average” or “median” prices if the underlying flat-type mix is not considered. A buyer targeting a 3-room flat in Sengkang should not benchmark their purchase against a 5-room executive unit in Queenstown that transacted at S$1.1 million.

Million dollar HDB resale flat transactions quarterly trend Q1 2021 to Q1 2026 Singapore — Figure 3: S$1 Million+ HDB Resale Transactions — Quarterly Trend Q1 2021 to Q1 2026. Record 412 units in Q1 2026. Concentrated in executive/5-room flats in mature estates. Source: HDB.

How to Read and Use the RPI

The RPI is most useful as a directional indicator of market momentum rather than a precise predictor of any specific flat’s price. When the index rises consecutively for several quarters, it signals broad-based market strength — a time when buyers may need to act decisively and sellers can price assertively. When the index is flat or declining, as in Q1 2026, it signals that the balance of power is shifting toward buyers, who have more negotiating leverage and face less competition from other purchasers.

For buyers, the RPI should be read alongside HDB’s median resale price data by town and flat type, which provides the absolute dollar benchmarks needed to assess whether a specific listed price is fair. For example, if the median 4-room resale price in Tampines is S$575,000 and a seller is asking S$630,000, you know you are being asked to pay a 9.6% premium — which may or may not be justified by the specific unit’s attributes (level, renovation, facing, proximity to MRT). The RPI tells you nothing about that specific 9.6% premium; it only tells you whether the overall market is trending up or down.

For sellers, the RPI provides market context for pricing decisions. A flat priced well above the market trend during a period of RPI softening (as in Q1 2026) is likely to sit unsold for longer, accumulating mortgage costs and opportunity cost. Pricing within 5% of recent comparable transactions (using HDB’s open data on recent resale transactions, updated weekly) optimises both speed of sale and realised price.

RPI vs Median Prices: Understanding the Difference

Measure	What It Shows	Best Used For	Limitation
HDB Resale Price Index (RPI)	Quality-adjusted price movement QoQ and YoY	Trend direction, timing decisions	Does not give absolute price levels
Median Resale Price (by town/type)	Mid-point of all transacted prices for a flat type in a town	Benchmarking a specific purchase or sale	Sensitive to composition; large-flat bias if few 3-rooms transact
Median PSF (S$/sqft)	Price normalised for size, allowing cross-town comparison	Comparing value across different flat sizes	Remaining lease and floor level differences not reflected
Transaction Volume	Number of completed resale deals per period	Gauging market activity and liquidity	Volume and price can move independently
Cash-Over-Valuation (COV)	Premium paid above HDB valuation (post-2014: now rare in formal sense)	Historical context; indicative of seller leverage	HDB abolished mandatory COV reporting in 2014

Worked Example: Using the RPI to Time a Resale Flat Sale

Mr and Mrs Tan are a Singapore Citizen couple who purchased a 4-room HDB flat in Ang Mo Kio (AMK) in 2019 at S$495,000. Their flat completed its 5-year MOP in Q1 2024. They are now considering selling to upgrade to a condominium. They want to use the RPI to assess whether Q2 2026 is a good time to list the flat.

Step 1 — Reading the RPI: The RPI stood at approximately 98.8 in 2019 (when they bought) and is at 203.4 as at Q1 2026. This represents a 106% increase in the index — suggesting that on a market-wide basis, resale prices have roughly doubled since their purchase. However, this is the market-wide figure; AMK is a mature estate and may have outperformed or underperformed the market.

Step 2 — Checking median data: HDB’s resale statistics show that the median 4-room resale price in Ang Mo Kio was approximately S$585,000 in Q1 2026, up from S$490,000 in Q1 2024. This is a 19.4% increase in two years — slightly above the RPI gain for the same period (+2.4% over those 6 quarters), suggesting AMK has outperformed the market slightly.

Step 3 — Evaluating timing: With the RPI at 203.4 and a first quarterly dip in Q1 2026, the market is at a high valuation point relative to history. Selling in a cooling market typically takes longer — average HDB resale time-to-sell in Q1 2026 was approximately 4 to 6 weeks for well-priced units. The Tans’ flat has a long remaining lease (approximately 86 years), which preserves CPF eligibility for buyers. They price the flat at S$595,000 (2% above median), engage an agent to list it in April 2026, and it transacts within 5 weeks at S$588,000. Net equity after repaying the outstanding HDB loan of S$120,000 and CPF refund of S$210,000 (with accrued interest) is approximately S$258,000 in cash — which they use as part of the ABSD remission exercise for their condominium purchase.

What the Q1 2026 Dip Means for the Market

The −0.1% QoQ RPI reading in Q1 2026 is best interpreted as a signal of market equilibration rather than the start of a downturn. Several structural factors underpin this view. First, the large BTO pipeline of the 2022–2024 period — including the Plus and Prime Plus flat categories introduced under the new HDB flat classification framework — is beginning to reach completion and release first-timers back into the HDB ecosystem. As these buyers resell, they add supply to the market. Second, the June 2026 BTO exercise (6,952 units including the landmark Bishan Lakeview and Bishan Shunfu projects) will absorb first-timer demand that might otherwise have competed in the resale market. Third, affordability constraints at current price levels — with a median 4-room resale flat in a mature estate costing S$570,000 to S$730,000 — are more binding today than at any time in HDB’s history.

None of this suggests an imminent price crash. The structural demand drivers for HDB resale — the marriage and family formation rate, the 5-year MOP cycle releasing flat supply, the absence of new HDB supply in many mature estates, and the continued preference of Singapore households for home ownership — remain robust. The most likely H2 2026 scenario is continued modest volume growth in HDB resale transactions alongside approximately flat-to-slightly-positive quarterly RPI changes, with individual estate and flat-type performance diverging significantly from the market average.

What Might Come Next for the RPI

The Q2 2026 HDB resale statistics will be released by HDB in late July 2026 and will provide the next definitive data point. Given that: (a) BTO application volumes for June 2026 are high (suggesting first-timer demand has been partially redirected to BTO); (b) the resale market in April and May 2026 maintained healthy volume; and (c) private property prices continued to rise in Q1 2026, keeping resale HDB prices competitive relative to condominium alternatives — the most likely outcome for Q2 2026 is a small positive RPI change in the range of 0% to +0.5%.

Over the medium term, the million-dollar HDB flat segment is likely to remain buoyant — sustained by the finite supply of large flats in mature estates with long leases, and by the fact that each en-bloc cycle in the private market temporarily redirects sellers back to the public housing segment. Conversely, the mass-market 4-room resale segment in non-mature estates may see modest price moderation as BTO completions add supply and as the affordability ceiling binds more buyers.

Frequently Asked Questions

How often is the HDB Resale Price Index published?

The RPI is published by HDB on a quarterly basis, typically within four weeks of the end of each calendar quarter. The Q1 (January–March) data is released in late April; Q2 (April–June) in late July; Q3 (July–September) in late October; and Q4 (October–December) in late January of the following year. HDB also publishes flash estimates for the quarter before the full release — these are preliminary figures that may be revised slightly in the final report. All releases are publicly available on hdb.gov.sg under “Resale Statistics.”

Does the RPI measure the price of all HDB flats, including new BTO flats?

No. The RPI measures only HDB resale flat transactions — flats that have completed their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) and are being sold on the open market by existing owners. It does not capture the price of new BTO flats sold directly by HDB, which are heavily subsidised and priced below market. The RPI therefore reflects the “market price” of public housing rather than the subsidised launch price of new flat exercises. This is why the RPI can rise substantially even when HDB continues to offer new BTO flats at subsidised prices — the resale market and the BTO market serve partly different buyer profiles and operate under different pricing mechanisms.

What does an RPI of 203.4 mean in practical terms?

An RPI of 203.4 (Q1 2026, with Q1 2012 = 100) means that the quality-adjusted price of a typical HDB resale flat has increased by approximately 103.4% since Q1 2012. This is a market-wide average — individual flat types, towns, and specific blocks will have diverged from this average significantly. Mature estate flats in Bishan, Queenstown, and Toa Payoh have outperformed the market, while flats in newer estates such as Punggol and Sengkang, or smaller flat types, may have underperformed. The 203.4 level also tells you that, relative to the 2013 RPI peak of 108, the current market is approximately 88% higher — highlighting how dramatically the affordability environment for resale HDB buyers has changed over the past decade.

Can I use the RPI to predict the future price of a specific flat?

The RPI is not designed to predict the price of a specific flat. It measures broad market trends using a hedonic regression approach, which means it controls for the average influence of flat characteristics. Your specific flat’s future price will be influenced by factors the RPI does not capture individually: the quality of your renovation, whether a new MRT station is planned nearby, the school allocation proximity, the remaining lease length relative to CPF accessibility rules, and whether the block has been earmarked for Selective En-bloc Redevelopment Scheme (SERS) consideration. For flat-specific valuation, obtain an HDB-commissioned valuation report or consult a licensed appraiser before signing any Option to Purchase.

What is the significance of the 60-year remaining lease threshold?

The 60-year remaining lease threshold is critical because it governs both CPF usage and HDB loan eligibility for resale flat purchasers. Under the CPF rules administered by the Central Provident Fund Board (CPFB), buyers can use CPF Ordinary Account funds to purchase a resale flat only if the flat’s remaining lease covers the youngest buyer to at least age 95. For a 35-year-old buyer, this means the flat must have at least 60 years of remaining lease. Similarly, HDB requires a minimum remaining lease of 20 years for a resale flat to be eligible for an HDB loan, and the loan tenure is capped so that the flat’s remaining lease meets the age-95 requirement. Flats approaching the 60-year lease boundary typically transact at a discount of 10% to 20% below comparable flats with longer leases — making remaining lease length one of the most important pricing variables in the HDB resale market.

How does the HDB RPI compare to the URA’s private property PPI?

The HDB RPI and the URA Private Property Price Index (PPI) are both hedonic regression-based indices, but they measure different markets. The PPI covers private residential properties (non-landed condominium and apartment transactions), while the RPI covers only HDB resale flats. Historically, the two indices have moved in the same broad direction but at different rates: private property prices tend to be more volatile, amplifying both upturns and downturns relative to the HDB market, which benefits from more structural demand (the 80% of Singapore residents who live in HDB flats). In Q1 2026, the indices diverged — the PPI rose 0.9% QoQ while the RPI fell 0.1% QoQ — reflecting the differing supply dynamics, buyer profiles, and regulatory contexts of the two markets.

Is the HDB resale market affected by Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD)?

Yes, but less directly than the private market. HDB resale flats are subject to ABSD when purchased as a second or subsequent property. A Singapore Citizen buying a resale HDB flat as a first home pays zero ABSD — this is the typical scenario for most resale buyers. However, an SC couple who already own a private property and wish to purchase a resale HDB flat would face ABSD of 20% on the second property — making the transaction financially unattractive in most cases. Permanent Residents purchasing their first HDB resale flat pay 5% ABSD, while PRs purchasing a second property pay 30%. Foreigners cannot purchase HDB resale flats at all under the Residential Property Act. These ABSD rules effectively concentrate HDB resale demand among first-time SC buyers and upgrading SC couples in the ABSD remission window — shaping the demographics and price sensitivity of the resale market.

Disclaimer

This article is for general informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or property advice. All HDB Resale Price Index data is sourced from official HDB quarterly releases. CPF rules, ABSD rates, HDB loan eligibility criteria, and remaining lease policies are correct as at June 2026 and are subject to change by the relevant authorities. For the most current data, visit hdb.gov.sg, cpf.gov.sg, and iras.gov.sg. Individual property valuations and transaction outcomes vary. Consult a CEA-registered property agent and a conveyancing solicitor for advice specific to your circumstances.

Singapore Property Market Mid-Year Review 2026: H1 Results, Price Trends and 2H Outlook

by Lovelyhomes Editorial Team | Jun 24, 2026 | Buying Guide, Financial Planning, Investment Analysis, Market News, Market Reports, Price Trends, Property Finance, Property Investment, Property Reviews & Analysis, Resources & Tools

Quick Answer: Singapore Property Market Mid-Year Review 2026

Private prices up 0.9% QoQ in Q1 2026 — the sixth consecutive quarter of growth; Outside Central Region (OCR) leads at +2.2% QoQ.
HDB resale dips −0.1% QoQ to RPI 203.4 — the first quarterly decline since Q2 2019, though still +1.2% year-on-year.
Record 412 million-dollar HDB flats changed hands in Q1 2026, a new quarterly high despite the headline price softening.
Developer sales collapsed 71.1% MoM in May 2026 (447 units), reflecting a thin launch pipeline — only one project launched that month.
42,561 units in the pipeline (including ECs) with 17,032 unsold — providing a supply buffer that moderates price surges.
Private rental softened −1.2% QoQ in Q1 2026; vacancy edged to 6.2%, though OCR bucked the trend with a modest +1.0% rental gain.
2H2026 GLS programme launched 9 confirmed sites (4,745 units), including the Jurong Lake District white site and Orchard Boulevard.
River Valley Green Parcel C set a new CCR GLS benchmark at S$1,730 psf ppr (June 2026), signalling continued developer confidence in prime addresses.
BTO June 2026 released 6,952 flats across 7 projects, including the first new HDB in Bishan in 40 years — absorbing first-timer demand from the resale market.
Full-year 2026 private price growth forecast at ~3%; URA Q2 2026 flash estimates expected in the first week of July — watch for confirmation of the trend.

Introduction: Where Singapore Property Stands at Mid-Year 2026

Six months into 2026, Singapore’s property market has delivered a split verdict. The private residential sector continues its steady upward march — the URA Private Property Price Index (PPI) rose 0.9% in Q1 2026, its sixth consecutive quarterly gain. At the same time, the HDB resale market recorded a rare 0.1% quarterly dip for the first time in nearly seven years, a signal that affordability constraints are beginning to bite in the public housing segment even as million-dollar flat transactions set new records.

This mid-year review consolidates the key price, transaction, supply, and rental data published by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) and the Housing & Development Board (HDB) through Q1 2026, and frames the outlook for the second half of the year. Whether you are a first-time buyer weighing an HDB flat, an upgrader eyeing a new launch condominium, or an investor managing a rental property portfolio, understanding the H1 2026 data is essential context for decisions made in the months ahead.

Private Residential Market: Sixth Consecutive Quarter of Growth

The URA’s Q1 2026 Real Estate Statistics confirmed a 0.9% quarter-on-quarter increase in the private residential PPI, bringing the index to 208.8. This builds on gains posted in every quarter since Q3 2024, and represents a 2.63% year-on-year improvement from Q1 2025.

The growth, however, is not uniform across regions. The Outside Central Region (OCR) — Singapore’s mass-market suburban segment — leads with a 2.2% QoQ gain and 3.8% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by newly launched projects in areas such as Tampines, Tengah, and Bukit Batok. The Rest of Central Region (RCR) came in second at +0.8% QoQ, while the Core Central Region (CCR) advanced only 0.3% QoQ — reflecting the combined drag of high absolute prices, the 60% Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) on foreign purchasers, and a thinner pipeline of new launches in the prime districts.

Singapore private property price index PPI versus HDB resale price index RPI Q1 2020 to Q1 2026 chart — Figure 1: URA Private Property Price Index (PPI) vs HDB Resale Price Index (RPI), Q1 2020 – Q1 2026. PPI +0.9% QoQ to 208.8; RPI −0.1% QoQ to 203.4. Source: URA / HDB.

HDB Resale Market: First Price Dip in Seven Years

The HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) fell 0.1% in Q1 2026 to 203.4, the first quarterly decline since Q2 2019. While modest in numerical terms, the reversal ends a run of 26 consecutive quarters of price growth in the public resale market. On a year-on-year basis, the index remains 1.2% higher than Q1 2025, indicating that the longer-term trajectory of HDB prices is intact — this is a pause rather than a correction.

Transaction volumes, by contrast, accelerated sharply. HDB registered 6,179 resale transactions in Q1 2026, a 17.6% increase over Q4 2025’s 5,256 cases. This combination of higher volume alongside a slightly lower index is consistent with composition effects: more buyers are transacting in less mature estates or in smaller flat types, which pulls the index down even as demand itself remains solid.

Most strikingly, Q1 2026 saw a record 412 HDB resale flats change hands at S$1 million or above — surpassing the previous record. Executive flats and 5-room units in mature estates such as Queenstown, Bishan, and Toa Payoh account for the majority of these million-dollar transactions. The persistence of such transactions at elevated price points signals that a subset of buyers remains willing to pay premium prices for location, remaining lease, and flat condition.

Singapore private property price change by region CCR RCR OCR Q1 2026 grouped bar chart — Figure 2: Private Property Price Change by Region, Q1 2026. OCR leads at +2.2% QoQ, CCR lags at +0.3% QoQ. Source: URA Q1 2026 Real Estate Statistics.

New Launch and Developer Sales: Volatile Monthly Figures, Steady Fundamentals

Developer sales in Singapore fluctuate dramatically month to month, largely as a function of which projects happen to launch in any given period. May 2026 illustrated this vividly: only 447 new private homes were sold — a 71.1% month-on-month collapse from April 2026’s 1,548 units. This decline was not a market failure; it simply reflected the absence of major new launches, with only Hudson Place Residences (327 units in Balestier, 201 sold at an average S$2,458 psf) entering the market that month.

Year-to-date through May 2026, approximately 5,358 new private homes had been transacted — a healthy pace relative to 2025, which was itself a recovery year. The River Valley Green Parcel C Government Land Sales (GLS) tender, which closed on 18 June 2026, attracted four bids with the top offer of S$750.6 million (S$1,730 psf per plot ratio) from a Sunway-MCL-CSC Land joint venture. That result — a 22% premium over the adjacent Parcel B tender two years earlier — signals that developers remain confident in the absorption of prime CCR product, notwithstanding the 60% ABSD on foreign buyers.

Singapore new private home developer sales Jan to May 2026 bar chart and key H1 2026 metrics table — Figure 3: New Private Home Sales (Jan–May 2026) and Key H1 2026 Market Metrics. May 2026 dip reflects thin launch pipeline. Source: URA.

Rental Market: Supply Headwinds Keep Rents Soft

Singapore’s private residential rental index declined 1.2% in Q1 2026, continuing the softening trend that began after the 2023 peak. Vacancy rates edged up from 6.0% in Q4 2025 to 6.2% in Q1 2026, reflecting the cumulative effect of completions from the elevated 2023–2025 GLS award cycle reaching the market simultaneously. Median condominium rents in Q1 2026 were approximately S$3,600 per month for a 2-bedroom unit in the OCR and S$5,200 per month for a 3-bedroom unit.

The OCR rental sub-market was an exception to the softening, posting a +1.0% QoQ gain, supported by demand from foreign professionals holding Employment Passes and from local upgraders seeking interim accommodation while awaiting new home completions. The CCR, where per-square-foot rents at S$6.20 are highest, saw the sharpest decline (−0.5% QoQ) as tenant options widened. HDB rental remained more resilient, supported by tighter eligibility controls and a smaller rental pool relative to demand.

Landlords pricing competitively — particularly in the RCR, where PSF rents fell 1.2% QoQ to S$5.40 — are finding that well-maintained, well-located units continue to attract tenants quickly. Those with outdated furnishings or aggressive asking rents are facing extended vacancy periods of 30 to 60 days in some cases.

Supply Pipeline and the 2H2026 GLS Programme

As at Q1 2026, 42,561 units (including executive condominiums) held planning approval, with 17,032 remaining unsold. This supply overhang provides a structural moderating force on private residential prices — a concern acknowledged by analysts who forecast full-year 2026 private price growth in the 2% to 4% range, with consensus estimates clustering around 3%.

The Government announced the 2H2026 GLS Confirmed List on 3 June 2026, comprising nine sites with a combined yield of approximately 4,745 units. Key sites include: the Jurong Lake District (JLD) white site (mixed use, yielding approximately 1,760 residential units), Orchard Boulevard (approximately 485 units in the CCR), Lentor Gardens Parcels A and B, Bayshore Road (mixed use), and the Jurong East executive condominium site. These awards, once tendered and developed over the 2027–2030 horizon, will continue the government’s policy of maintaining adequate supply to prevent speculative price surges.

On the HDB side, the June 2026 BTO exercise launched 6,952 flats across seven projects in Ang Mo Kio, Bishan, Bukit Merah, Sembawang, and Woodlands. Notably, the Bishan Lakeview and Bishan Shunfu projects mark the first new HDB flats in the Bishan estate in over four decades — a significant milestone that generated substantial first-timer interest. With approximately 50% of the June 2026 BTO units classified as Plus or Prime (carrying enhanced restrictions including a 10-year Minimum Occupation Period and tighter rental and resale conditions), the absorption of first-timer demand from the resale market may ease more gradually than prior exercises.

Key H1 2026 Metrics at a Glance

Metric	Value / Change	Source / Notes
URA Private Property PPI (Q1 2026)	208.8 (+0.9% QoQ, +2.63% YoY)	URA Q1 2026 Real Estate Statistics
HDB Resale Price Index (Q1 2026)	203.4 (−0.1% QoQ, +1.2% YoY)	HDB Q1 2026 — first decline since Q2 2019
OCR Price Change (Q1 2026)	+2.2% QoQ / +3.8% YoY	URA — leads all regions
CCR Price Change (Q1 2026)	+0.3% QoQ / +1.2% YoY	URA — moderated by ABSD impact on foreign buyers
New Private Homes Sold (May 2026)	447 units (−71.1% MoM)	URA — thin launch month; one project launched
YTD Developer Sales (Jan–May 2026)	~5,358 units	URA — healthy pace vs 2025
HDB Resale Transactions (Q1 2026)	6,179 (+17.6% QoQ)	HDB — strong demand rebound
Million-Dollar HDB Flats (Q1 2026)	412 (new quarterly record)	HDB — 5-room / exec flats in mature estates
Private Pipeline (incl ECs)	42,561 units; 17,032 unsold	URA Q1 2026
Private Rental Index (Q1 2026)	−1.2% QoQ; vacancy 6.2%	URA — supply pressure from recent completions
River Valley Green Parcel C GLS	S$1,730 psf ppr (top bid)	URA tender closed 18 June 2026
2H2026 Confirmed GLS Supply	9 sites / ~4,745 units	URA / MND — announced 3 June 2026

Worked Example: The Lim Family — Deciding Whether to Buy in H2 2026

Mr and Mrs Lim are a Singapore Citizen couple with a combined gross monthly income of S$14,000. Their HDB flat in Tampines (5-room, purchased 2019) completed its 5-year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2024. They wish to upgrade to a condominium in the OCR — specifically, they are considering a 3-bedroom unit at an upcoming Tampines new launch priced at S$1.65 million.

As first-time private property purchasers (they currently own only the HDB flat), the ABSD position is as follows: under the SC Couple ABSD Remission Scheme, they may purchase the condo and pay 20% ABSD (S$330,000 in cash), then sell their HDB within 6 months of the condominium’s completion to qualify for a full ABSD refund. Alternatively, if they sell their HDB first, they become first-time private buyers and pay zero ABSD — but they would need interim rental accommodation, adding approximately S$3,200 to S$3,600 per month in rent costs. The BSD on S$1.65 million is S$47,600 (payable from CPF).

On the mortgage, with S$14,000 gross income and no other credit obligations, the maximum TDSR-55% exposure is S$7,700 per month. A 75% LTV loan of S$1,237,500 at 3.2% over 30 years costs approximately S$5,338 per month — representing a TDSR of 38.1%, comfortably within the limit. Their HDB CPF Ordinary Account balance of S$280,000 can fully cover the BSD and contribute toward the cash down payment. With H1 2026 data showing OCR prices rising fastest (+2.2% QoQ), waiting beyond 2026 carries the risk of further price appreciation — the Lim family’s analysis suggests buying now, with the ABSD remission strategy, offers the most cost-effective path.

Why H1 2026 Data Matters for Buyers, Sellers and Investors

The divergence between private and HDB price trends in Q1 2026 has meaningful implications across buyer segments. For HDB upgraders, the slight moderation in HDB resale prices — combined with continued OCR private price growth — may marginally compress the equity gain from a resale flat sale. However, the record pace of million-dollar HDB transactions indicates that well-located mature-estate flats continue to attract premium valuations, providing upgraders with strong exit equity.

For investors, the rental market data warrants careful attention. A 1.2% QoQ decline in private rental coupled with rising vacancy rates suggests that the yield compression of 2024–2025 is continuing into 2026. Gross yields in the CCR have compressed to approximately 2.6% — below the prevailing bank fixed deposit rate — prompting a reassessment of the investment case for prime rental properties. OCR yields remain more attractive at approximately 4.0% to 4.5%, supported by domestic upgrader demand for rentals.

For sellers, the RPI dip is a reminder that the HDB resale market is not a one-way escalator. The combination of a large June 2026 BTO exercise absorbing first-timer demand, a growing pool of alternative supply from Plus and Prime flats reaching resale eligibility in future years, and affordability constraints on younger buyers, suggests that HDB resale price growth in H2 2026 will remain modest.

What Might Come Next in H2 2026

Several events and data releases will shape Singapore’s property market in the second half of 2026. The URA Q2 2026 flash estimates — expected in the first week of July 2026 — will provide the first indication of whether the private market maintained its growth trajectory or softened in the April-to-June period. Analysts will be particularly focused on whether the OCR can sustain its outsized QoQ gains given that multiple new launches — including projects in Tengah and Bukit Timah — were scheduled for the quarter.

On the supply side, the Lorong Puntong GLS tender (0.43 ha, approximately 140 units, near Bright Hill MRT) was scheduled for launch in late June 2026, with results expected in Q3 2026. The Sembawang Drive executive condominium GLS site — the first EC in the north of Singapore to be tendered under the new 10-year MOP rules — will also attract close attention for its pricing implications on the EC market. Should these tenders attract aggressive bids — as River Valley Green Parcel C did — it would signal continued developer confidence despite rising completion volumes.

ABSD policy is, for the time being, unchanged. The current rates — 20% for Singapore Citizens purchasing a second property, 60% for foreigners — remain in place as structural cooling measures. Any adjustment would likely require a material deterioration in market fundamentals or a significant policy signal from the Ministry of National Development. For H2 2026, the base case among analysts is steady rates, steady growth of roughly 2% to 3%, and continued healthy transaction volumes in both HDB resale and new launches.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the PPI +0.9% in Q1 2026 mean for buyers?

The 0.9% quarterly gain in the URA Private Property Price Index (PPI) reflects the weighted average price movement across all private residential transactions in Q1 2026. For a buyer purchasing a S$1.5 million condominium, a 0.9% QoQ increase would translate to approximately S$13,500 of price appreciation in a single quarter — though individual property price movements vary significantly by location, project age, and unit attributes. The PPI is most useful as a market-wide temperature gauge rather than a predictor of any specific property’s trajectory. Buyers should note that OCR prices (+2.2% QoQ) rose substantially faster than the island-wide average, suggesting stronger near-term price momentum in suburban new launches.

Why did HDB resale prices dip in Q1 2026 despite record million-dollar transactions?

These two data points are not contradictory. The HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) uses a regression model that controls for flat type, floor area, remaining lease, and town — it measures the like-for-like price movement, stripping out changes in the composition of what transacted. In Q1 2026, a higher share of transactions occurred in non-mature estates and in smaller flat types, which mathematically pulled the index down even as premium flats in mature estates continued to transact at record prices. The 412 million-dollar transactions reflect demand for a specific niche of the HDB market — larger, well-located flats with long remaining leases — rather than the broad-based market captured by the RPI.

Should I wait for Q2 2026 data before making a buying decision?

Timing the market based on quarterly index releases is rarely a reliable strategy. By the time URA publishes Q2 2026 flash estimates (expected first week of July 2026), property prices will reflect conditions from April to June — data that is already two to three months old. More importantly, the index captures market-wide trends, not the specific property you intend to purchase. If a target property fits your financial capacity (TDSR and MSR within limits), your housing needs, and your long-term plans, waiting for one additional data point is unlikely to materially improve the outcome. The more useful discipline is ensuring your ABSD position is optimised and your mortgage is competitively priced before signing the Option to Purchase.

Is the private rental market going to keep falling in H2 2026?

The primary driver of private rental softening — elevated completions from the 2023–2025 construction cycle — will continue to exert downward pressure through at least mid-2027, as the bulk of the pipeline reaches the market. However, rental declines are unlikely to be severe because demand from foreign professionals (Employment Pass and S Pass holders) and domestic upgraders awaiting new home completion provides a floor. The OCR rental market, which already posted a positive 1.0% QoQ gain in Q1 2026, is likely to prove the most resilient. Landlords in the CCR should price realistically and invest in renovation quality to stand out in a market where tenants have expanding choices.

What is the significance of the River Valley Green Parcel C S$1,730 psf ppr bid?

The S$1,730 psf per plot ratio (psf ppr) top bid on River Valley Green Parcel C — submitted by a Sunway MCL and CSC Land joint venture — represents the highest CCR GLS land rate in Singapore’s history for that precinct. The psf ppr metric reflects the price paid per square foot of the site’s plot ratio (i.e., the total allowable gross floor area). When developers pay S$1,730 psf ppr, they typically need to sell the resulting apartments at approximately S$2,800 to S$3,200 psf to achieve acceptable returns after construction costs, professional fees, financing costs, and developer profit. This benchmarks what buyers can expect the eventual River Valley Green project — likely marketed in 2027 or 2028 — to be priced at upon launch.

How does the 2H2026 GLS programme affect buyers of new launches?

The nine confirmed list sites in the 2H2026 GLS programme — comprising approximately 4,745 units including the Jurong Lake District white site and Orchard Boulevard — will take two to four years to develop and launch. GLS awards made in 2H2026 will therefore result in new projects entering the market approximately in 2028 to 2030. For buyers considering new launches in 2026 or 2027, the GLS pipeline primarily affects expectations about the medium-term supply environment rather than the immediate availability of units. It also provides comfort that the government is managing supply actively — a signal that extreme price surges, as seen in 2021 to 2023, are unlikely to recur in this cycle.

Can Singapore Citizens pay ABSD in CPF?

No. ABSD — including the 20% levied on Singapore Citizens purchasing a second property — must be paid entirely in cash. Only Buyer’s Stamp Duty (BSD) may be paid from the CPF Ordinary Account (for properties purchased for occupation, not purely for investment). For a second property purchase at S$1.65 million, the ABSD of S$330,000 must be funded from cash savings. If the buyer is a Singapore Citizen couple who currently own one HDB flat and are purchasing a private property with intent to sell the HDB within 6 months of the new property’s completion, they may qualify for a full ABSD remission under the SC Couple Remission Scheme — in which case the S$330,000 is paid upfront and later refunded by the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS).

Disclaimer

This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or property investment advice. All property price data is sourced from official releases by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) and the Housing & Development Board (HDB). ABSD rates, BSD rates, CPF rules, LTV limits, and TDSR thresholds are correct as at June 2026 and are subject to change without notice. Readers should verify current rates at ura.gov.sg, hdb.gov.sg, iras.gov.sg, and mas.gov.sg before making any property transaction. All worked examples use illustrative figures; individual circumstances vary. Consult a licensed mortgage broker, conveyancing solicitor, and CEA-registered property agent for advice specific to your situation.

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